Is JD.com a Value Opportunity After Its 14.8% Slide in 2025?

• Wondering if JD.com is finally attractively priced, or if it is just another value trap? You are not alone in searching for real value in this well-known Chinese e-commerce stock.
• JD.com’s stock has been a rollercoaster lately, down 14.8% over the past month and nearly 20% over the last year, though it managed to eke out a 0.9% gain in the last week.
• The recent volatility is being shaped by headlines around increased competition in the Chinese e-commerce sector, regulatory developments, and shifting consumer sentiment. These events are creating both new risks and fresh opportunities, giving investors plenty to consider as the market looks for direction.
• Right now, JD.com scores 5 out of 6 on our valuation checks, signaling it may be undervalued across most key metrics. Let’s break down what those valuation approaches actually say about the stock’s prospects today and, even more importantly, explore a smarter way to assess its true worth by the end of this article.

Find out why JD.com's -19.4% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: JD.com Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s terms. This method helps investors judge whether the current share price fairly reflects the business’s future earning potential.

For JD.com, the DCF analysis starts with its latest free cash flow, which stands at negative CN¥232.8 million. Analysts forecast that JD.com’s free cash flow will grow strongly, reaching CN¥49.9 billion by 2028. Looking further out, projections suggest it could hit as much as CN¥46.9 billion by 2035. Most of this rapid growth is expected in the next five years, followed by more moderate increases in subsequent years. Please note that projections beyond 2028 are extrapolated and not direct analyst estimates.

After tallying these future cash flows and accounting for their time value, the resulting estimated intrinsic value per share is $54.09. Compared to the current share price, this implies JD.com is undervalued by 46.1% based on this approach.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests JD.com is undervalued by 46.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 930 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for JD.com.

Approach 2: JD.com Price vs Earnings (PE)

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most popular valuation metrics for profitable stocks like JD.com because it directly ties a company’s share price to its earnings, providing a simple way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of profit. PE ratios are especially meaningful for companies with consistent profits, as they allow investors to compare valuation across the industry and against historical norms.

Growth expectations and risk are important factors when judging what a 'normal' or 'fair' PE ratio should be. Fast-growing companies often command higher PE ratios, while companies facing uncertainty or lower growth prospects tend to trade at lower multiples. The industry average PE for Multiline Retail is 18.9x. JD.com's closest peers average a significantly higher 63.6x. In comparison, JD.com is currently trading at a PE of just 9.1x.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” goes a step further by estimating what JD.com's PE ratio should be, considering not just industry and peer benchmarks, but also the company’s unique growth outlook, profit margins, market capitalization, and specific business risks. The Fair Ratio for JD.com is 23.5x, reflecting those key factors and providing a more nuanced picture than a simple industry or peer comparison.

JD.com's current PE is 9.1x compared to a Fair Ratio of 23.5x. This suggests the stock is significantly undervalued on this metric and may present upside potential if the company's fundamentals remain intact.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1439 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your JD.com Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives, a simple yet powerful way to make smarter investment decisions by putting your perspective at the center of the process.

A Narrative is your story or point of view on a company and the market forces shaping it, backed up by your own estimates for future revenue, profits, and margins. By linking a company's business story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value, Narratives bridge the gap between market headlines and your investment logic.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to easily compare their fair value for a stock (based on their assumptions) with the current share price, helping them decide if it is time to buy, hold, or sell.

Narratives are dynamic and are automatically updated when new information comes in, such as quarterly results or important news, so you can stay one step ahead of the market.

For example, one investor’s Narrative for JD.com might see strong logistics and user growth fueling a fair value above $60, while another might focus on rising competition and margin pressures, arriving at a fair value near $28. By comparing these views to today’s price, you can confidently act according to your own research and outlook.

Do you think there's more to the story for JD.com? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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