Earnings Beat: JD.com, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of CN¥357b, some 6.3% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at CN¥4.15, 26% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from JD.com's 45 analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.32t in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 47% to CN¥14.57 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.30t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥15.15 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for JD.com

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$44.53, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JD.com at US$60.14 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.98. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.6% annually. So although JD.com is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JD.com. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JD.com. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JD.com going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - JD.com has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.