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NHI

National Health Investors NYSE:NHI Stock Report

Last Price

US$64.73

Market Cap

US$2.9b

7D

1.1%

1Y

4.8%

Updated

10 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NHI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance1/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends5/6

NHI Stock Overview

Incorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc.

National Health Investors Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for National Health Investors
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$64.73
52 Week HighUS$66.00
52 Week LowUS$50.22
Beta0.90
1 Month Change7.70%
3 Month Change19.67%
1 Year Change4.78%
3 Year Change-20.76%
5 Year Change-17.74%
Change since IPO217.69%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 07

National Health Investors Q2 Earnings Preview

National Health Investors (NYSE:NHI) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Monday, August 8th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.22 (+5.2% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $73.26M (-1.4% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 2 downward.

Jun 29

National Health Investors: A 5.8% Yield, And Little Else

Healthcare REITs have outperformed the REIT average thus far this year. National Health Investors has outperformed the Healthcare REIT average. This company has maintained a solid balance sheet and above-average yield, in spite of the COVID pandemic. This article examines growth, balance sheet, dividend, and valuation metrics, to get a feel for where National Health Investors is going. Healthcare REITs have outperformed the REIT average thus far this year, returning an average of (-15.09)%, compared to (-19.34%) for the Equity REIT index, according to Hoya Capital Income Builder. Hoya Capital Income Builder National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) has outperformed the Healthcare REIT average, gaining 6.33% YTD as of this writing, and sporting a dividend Yield of 5.8%. It has been one of the stellar REITs of 2022. Seeking Alpha Premium Meet the company Founded in 1991 and headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, National Health Investors' portfolio consists of 201 properties across 32 states, managed through 30 Operating Partners. Of these properties, 132 are senior housing facilities (blue dots), 68 are skilled nursing facilities (orange dots), and one is a hospital (brown dot in Oklahoma). In the senior housing sector, they emphasize private pay facilities not dependent on government reimbursements. NHI website Of the 30 tenants, about 26% of NHI's revenues derive from two publicly traded companies (National Healthcare Corporation and Ensign Group), while 63% comes from regional operators. NHI derives 23% of its income from properties operated by Senior Living Communities, by far the largest of their tenants. NHI Q1 2022 Supplemental About 60% of the company's revenues come from senior housing, and 35% from skilled nursing facilities. Hospitals and medical office buildings account for only 1% of revenue. Weighted average EBITDARM lease coverage for the portfolio is 1.54x, with the skilled nursing multiple 2.71x and the senior housing multiple just 0.98x. NHI Q1 2022 Supplemental Their senior housing portfolio has experienced quite a bit of disruption from the COVID pandemic. Rent collection was only 79.7% in Q1 2022. As a result, for the past year the company has been working on disposing of underperforming senior housing, with a target of $250 to $400 million in sales. This is all but complete now, according to President and CEO Eric Mendelsohn, speaking on the Q1 2022 earnings call. The company has also been restructuring leases with valued operating partners they are confident will recover from the COVID gut-punch, and project that rent collection will rise into the mid-90's in Q2 2022. Minimum base rents collectible as of March 31 are a nice steady $260 million or so per annum, as shown below: NHI 10-Q for Q1 2022 Quarterly earnings highlights Here are the main takeaways from Q1 earnings reported May 10, on the earnings call and in the company's 10-Q: Net income per diluted common share of $0.18, up $.04 from Q4 2021, but down 77% YoY (year over year) FFO (funds from operations) essentially flat from Q4 2021 $71.3 million in revenue, down 11.8% from Q4 2021 Expenses of $66.2 million, up about 50%, thanks mostly to $24 million in "loan and realty losses" Net income of $8.2 million, down 76% from Q4 2021 Cash from operations $38.7 million, down 32% from Q4 2021 Cash and cash equivalents on hand of $39.9 million, down from $116 million at the close of 2021. Growth metrics Here are the 3-year growth figures for FFO (funds from operations), TCFO (total cash from operations), and market cap. Metric 2018 2019 2020 2021 3-year CAGR FFO (millions) $225.7 $239.7 $246.2 $211.1 -- FFO Growth % -- 6.2 2.7 (-14.3) (-2.20) FFO per share $5.48 $5.50 $5.60 $4.60 -- FFO per share growth % -- 0.4 1.8 (-17.9) (-5.67) TCFO (millions) $207.9 $241.0 $232.1 $210.9 -- TCFO Growth % -- 15.4 (-3.7) (-9.2) 0.48 Market Cap (billions) $3.22 $3.63 $3.09 $2.63 -- Market Cap Growth % -- 12.7 (-14.9) (-14.9) (-6.52) Source: TD Ameritrade, CompaniesMarketCap.com, and author calculations Even before COVID reared its ugly head, NHI was growing only slowly. In 2019, which was a good year for REITs in general, NHI grew FFO at only 6.2%, and FFO per share was essentially flat. In 2021, which was a great year for REITs, NHI's revenues and cash flow fell off double digits across the board. This company is a dividend proposition, but not a growth prospect. Meanwhile, here is how the stock price has done over the past 3 twelve-month periods, compared to the REIT average as represented by the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ). Metric 2019 2020 2021 2022 3-yr CAGR NHI share price June 24 $79.56 $57.45 $68.83 $61.65 -- NHI share price Gain % -- (-27.8) 19.8 (-10.4) (-8.15) VNQ share price June 24 $89.92 $77.41 $102.22 $93.12 -- VNQ share price Gain % -- (-13.9) 32.1 (-8.9) 1.17 Source: MarketWatch.com and author calculations Like most REITs, NHI's share price suffered in 2020 and bounced back in 2021, but NHI's 19.8% bounce-back was timid compared to the 32% comeback in the VNQ. The company's own figures show that it has underperformed both the REIT average and the S&P 500 TR Index over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years in total return. The company's 3-year CAGR in share price loss of (-8.15)% swallows up the dividend, as high-yielding securities often do. NHI Q1 2022 Supplemental Balance sheet metrics Despite the blow from the pandemic, NHI has maintained a relatively healthy balance sheet. The liquidity ratio of 2.12 is above both the REIT and the Healthcare sector averages, the debt ratio and debt/EBITDA ratio are both solid though unspectacular, and the balance sheet is bond rated. Company Liquidity Ratio Debt Ratio Debt/EBITDA Bond Rating NHI 2.12 32% 6.7 BBB- Source: Hoya Capital Income Builder, TD Ameritrade, and author calculations Almost a third of the company's debt is in unsecured loans at variable interest rates. NHI Q1 2022 Supplemental NHI is blessedly free of debt maturities for the remainder of this year, but faces a formidable $475 million next year. Once through that, they have two years of relatively easy payments, then $700 million comes due in 2026, most of it repayments to their line of credit. NHI Q1 2022 Supplemental On March 31, NHI held $39.9 million in cash and equivalents, against debts of $1.25 billion. They have $416 million available through their ATM facility, but do not expect to use any of it in H1 2022. Instead, NHI is planning to repurchase $240 million worth of shares. Dividend metrics NHI is a strong payer. Like most Healthcare REITs, the company was obliged to cut its dividend during the pandemic, and it has not recovered, but still yields a pretty juicy 5.8%. Even taking that cut into account, this company handily outpays both the average Healthcare REIT and the average REIT overall. Although the payout ratio looks high at 80%, Seeking Alpha Premium rates the dividend a perfectly safe C. Company Div. Yield Div. Growth Div. Score Payout Ratio Div. Safety NHI 5.84% (-5.0)% 5.01 80% C Source: Hoya Capital Income Builder, TD Ameritrade, Seeking Alpha Premium

Shareholder Returns

NHIUS REITsUS Market
7D1.1%3.1%1.2%
1Y4.8%-4.3%-11.6%

Return vs Industry: NHI exceeded the US REITs industry which returned -5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NHI exceeded the US Market which returned -13.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NHI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NHI volatility
NHI Average Weekly Movement3.9%
REITs Industry Average Movement4.3%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: NHI is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NHI's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
199120D. Mendelsohnhttps://www.nhireit.com

Incorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc. (NYSE: NHI) is a real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint-venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical investments. NHI's portfolio consists of independent, assisted and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, skilled nursing facilities, medical office buildings and specialty hospitals.

National Health Investors Fundamentals Summary

How do National Health Investors's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NHI fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$2.89b
Earnings (TTM)US$68.09m
Revenue (TTM)US$275.20m

42.4x

P/E Ratio

10.5x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NHI income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$275.20m
Cost of RevenueUS$41.12m
Gross ProfitUS$234.09m
Other ExpensesUS$165.99m
EarningsUS$68.09m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)1.52
Gross Margin85.06%
Net Profit Margin24.74%
Debt/Equity Ratio78.2%

How did NHI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.6%

Current Dividend Yield

90%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NHI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NHI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NHI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA19.7x
PEG Ratio2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NHI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NHI PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for NHI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average56.6x
SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT
86.2x14.0%US$3.7b
DOC Physicians Realty Trust
51.6x5.4%US$4.3b
LTC LTC Properties
19.1x1.3%US$1.8b
CVMC.A Sila Realty Trust
69.6xn/aUS$1.4b
NHI National Health Investors
42.4x17.6%US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NHI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.4x) compared to the peer average (56.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NHI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NHI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.4x) compared to the US REITs industry average (31.2x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NHI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NHI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.4x
Fair PE Ratio41.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NHI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NHI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NHI ($64.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($194.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NHI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is National Health Investors forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


17.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NHI's forecast earnings growth (17.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NHI's earnings (17.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NHI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NHI's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NHI's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NHI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has National Health Investors performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-5.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NHI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NHI's current net profit margins (24.7%) are lower than last year (48.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NHI's earnings have declined by 5.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NHI's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: NHI had negative earnings growth (-55.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the REITs industry average (48.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NHI's Return on Equity (4.8%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is National Health Investors's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NHI's short term assets ($182.4M) exceed its short term liabilities ($65.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: NHI's short term assets ($182.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NHI's net debt to equity ratio (75.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NHI's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 89.2% to 78.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NHI's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (17.9%).

Interest Coverage: NHI's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is National Health Investors's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


5.56%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NHI's dividend (5.56%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.51%).

High Dividend: NHI's dividend (5.56%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NHI's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NHI's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: At its current payout ratio (90.3%), NHI's payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: At its current cash payout ratio (81.3%), NHI's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

D. Mendelsohn (60 yo)

7yrs

Tenure

US$2,567,353

Compensation

Mr. D. Eric Mendelsohn has been a Director at National Health Investors, Inc since February 17, 2021. Mr. Mendelsohn serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President at National Health Investors Inc. si...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: D.'s total compensation ($USD2.57M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.59M).

Compensation vs Earnings: D.'s compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NHI's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NHI's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Health Investors, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Health Investors, Inc.
  • Ticker: NHI
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Health Care REITs
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Implied Market Cap: US$2.891b
  • Shares outstanding: 44.66m
  • Website: https://www.nhireit.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Health Investors, Inc.
  • 222 Robert Rose Drive
  • Murfreesboro
  • Tennessee
  • 37129
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.