Occupancy Gains And Acquisitions Will Improve Senior Housing Outlook

Key Takeaways

• Occupancy gains in senior housing could drive rate growth, improving revenue and margins.
  
• Strategic acquisitions and industry tailwinds suggest robust revenue growth and enhanced earnings potential.
  
• Dependence on occupancy improvements and uncertain subsidies could impact National Health Investors' revenue, margins, and financial stability amidst leadership changes.

Catalysts

Incorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc.

• Occupancy improvements in the senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) are approaching levels where rate growth can be driven, which should have a positive impact on revenue and margins.
  
• Recent acquisitions, including the $121 million Spring Arbor portfolio, and a robust investment pipeline, including over $1.9 billion of sourced opportunities, point toward potential revenue growth from expanded operations.
  
• Improved cost of capital, due to an oversubscribed equity offering and optimized portfolio, enhances the company's ability to finance growth and improve earnings.
  
• Current industry tailwinds, such as low inventory growth and favorable demographic trends, are positioned to support long-term revenue growth and earnings.
  
• Strategic transitions and management replacements at underperforming properties should mitigate losses and potentially recover net operating income (NOI), positively impacting earnings.

National Health Investors Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming National Health Investors's revenue will grow by 11.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 38.4% today to 39.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $177.1 million (and earnings per share of $3.32) by about December 2027, up from $126.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 30.7x on those 2027 earnings, up from 25.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Health Care REITs industry at 43.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.5% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.15%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

National Health Investors Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Senior Living management, one of National Health Investors' (NHI) tenants, was unable to meet lease and interest obligations, which could impact revenue and net margins.
  
• The anticipated loss of net operating income (NOI) from SLM and expected transition expenses in 2024 may affect earnings and overall financial performance.
  
• The dependency on occupancy improvements in the SHOP (Senior Housing Operating Portfolio) to drive rate growth and margins poses a risk if occupancy targets are not met or if there are continued delays, potentially impacting earnings.
  
• There is uncertainty regarding skilled nursing subsidies, as they are influenced by local legislatures and may not be consistent year-to-year, which could impact revenue and cash flow.
  
• The retirement of long-standing Chairman Andy Adams could introduce uncertainty and potentially impact strategic decision-making, influencing business stability and growth projections.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $83.43 for National Health Investors based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $454.6 million, earnings will come to $177.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 30.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
• Given the current share price of $71.77, the analyst's price target of $83.43 is 14.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.