Is It Too Late To Consider Millrose Properties After Its 35.6% 2025 Rally?

• Wondering if Millrose Properties is still a smart buy after its recent run, or if the easy money has already been made? This breakdown is for you.
• The stock is up a strong 35.6% year to date, even after a choppy recent stretch with a 0.9% gain over the last 30 days and a 7.4% pullback in just the past week.
• Much of that move has been driven by growing investor optimism around the company’s portfolio repositioning in higher demand rental markets and its progress on streamlining underperforming assets. At the same time, broader real estate sentiment has improved as rate cut expectations build, giving names like Millrose a tailwind.
• Despite the rally, Millrose scores a perfect 6/6 on our undervaluation checks. We will unpack this using several valuation methods before circling back at the end with a deeper, narrative driven way to decide what that really means for long term investors.

Millrose Properties delivered 0.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Specialized REITs industry.

Approach 1: Millrose Properties Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Analysis

The Dividend Discount Model looks at what a stock is worth today based on the dividends investors expect to receive in the future, adjusted for how sustainable and growable those payments appear to be.

Millrose currently pays an annual dividend per share of $2.90. However, the company is paying out roughly 106.6% of its earnings as dividends, which is above 100% and therefore not sustainable over the long term. That is reflected in its negative return on equity of about -2.41%, which produces an almost flat implied long term dividend growth rate of just 0.16%, calculated as (1 - payout ratio) multiplied by ROE.

Even with those cautious assumptions, the DDM model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $37.25 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies the stock is about 20.1% undervalued, suggesting investors are being paid reasonably well for taking on the risk that the dividend may need to be right sized in future.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Dividend Discount Model (DDM) analysis suggests Millrose Properties is undervalued by 20.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 911 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Millrose Properties.

Approach 2: Millrose Properties Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the price to earnings ratio is often the most intuitive way to judge valuation, because it directly links what investors are paying today to the profits the business is currently generating. A higher PE can be justified when investors expect stronger growth or see the earnings as very stable, while slower growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower, more conservative multiple.

Millrose currently trades on a PE of about 22.8x, which sits below the peer average of roughly 24.1x but well above the broader Specialized REITs industry average near 16.4x. To refine that comparison, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio, the PE you might expect based on company specific factors like earnings growth prospects, profitability, size and risk profile, rather than just how similar stocks are priced.

Because this Fair Ratio of around 40.4x incorporates Millrose’s fundamentals and risk alongside its industry and market cap, it offers a more tailored benchmark than simple peer or sector averages. Against that lens, the current 22.8x multiple screens as materially lower than the Fair Ratio, which suggests the shares may be undervalued on a PE basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Millrose Properties Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Millrose’s story with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your own investment storyline, where you spell out what you believe about the company’s future revenue, earnings and margins, then link that to a financial forecast and a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and share these Narratives on the Community page, making it an easy and accessible tool to stress test your thinking. Narratives help you decide when to buy or sell by constantly comparing your Fair Value to the current Price, and they automatically update as new information like earnings reports or major news comes in. For Millrose, one investor’s Narrative might assume aggressive rental growth and a higher fair value, while another might expect slower leasing momentum and a lower fair value, leading to very different decisions from the same starting stock price.

Do you think there's more to the story for Millrose Properties? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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