Modiv Industrial Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Modiv Industrial is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 149.5% and 0.8% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 137.2% per annum.
Key information
149.5%
Earnings growth rate
137.21%
EPS growth rate
| REITs earnings growth | 17.1% |
| Revenue growth rate | 0.8% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 14 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Modiv Industrial: Throwing In The Towel
Summary MDV is an internally managed REIT focused on single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing properties, recently increasing its dividend by 2.6%. MDV faces challenges due to specialized assets, high capital costs, and sector-trailing AFFO multiples, limiting its ability to reinvest or grow efficiently. The CEO acknowledges MDV's persistent undervaluation—estimated at 20%-40% below intrinsic value—and is open to strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. I assign MDV a Hold rating as management explores creative options to unlock shareholder value amid ongoing market skepticism. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysts Have Been Trimming Their Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV) Price Target After Its Latest Report
It's been a mediocre week for Modiv Industrial, Inc. ( NYSE:MDV ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$14.62...Modiv Industrial Sits In The Crosshairs Of Tariffs
Summary Modiv Industrial faces significant risks due to its sale leaseback business model and exposure to economic changes, earning it a Hold rating. The potential end of the CHIPS Act and introduction of tariffs by President Trump could severely impact MDV's tenants and overall business model. MDV's portfolio consists of 43 properties, primarily industrial, with significant exposure to California and the infrastructure sector. Despite recent share price declines making MDV more attractive, macroeconomic disruptions and uncertain US manufacturing outlook increase investment risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Patient Acquisitions And Cost Cuts Will Yield Mixed REIT Prospects
Modiv Industrial's strategic acquisitions and property expansion plans signal potential growth in revenue and earnings once market conditions improve.Modiv Industrial: Too Risky Despite The Potential
Summary Modiv Industrial is transitioning from a diversified REIT to a pure-play industrial REIT, focusing on U.S. manufacturing properties. The company faces high risk due to its small portfolio, geographic concentration, and elevated leverage. Despite a forward dividend yield of 7.85%, Modiv's high payout ratio and volatile AFFO make the dividend less secure. Valuation models suggest Modiv trades at a discount, but inconsistent AFFO growth and high leverage warrant a "hold" rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModiv Industrial: Solid Q3 Earnings And Dividend Bumped, But Still Not Buying
Summary REITs vary in strategies; for instance, Realty Income Corporation is globally diversified, while Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. focuses on Southern California industrial assets. Modiv Industrial specializes in single-tenant manufacturing properties, emphasizing “Made in America” and onshoring, but faces concentration and business risks. Modiv's sale leaseback strategy involves high-risk bets on tenants' creditworthiness and may overpay for low-quality assets, raising concerns about sustainability. Despite MDV's efforts to diversify and increase dividends, its portfolio's long-term risks and assets justify a Sell rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModiv Industrial: Unclear Growth But No Red Flags
Summary Modiv Industrial is a REIT that has recently shifted its focus to industrial properties. The company has a limited history but has shown improvements in cash flow and a relatively healthy balance sheet. Modiv's future outlook depends on its ability to convert non-core assets into industrial properties and navigate potential risks to its major tenants. The pipeline of new deals is also slow for the time being, so only rent increases in the current leases will be the main source of dividend growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModiv Industrial: A 7.2% Dividend Yield From Made In The USA
Summary Modiv Industrial is paying out a 7.2% dividend yield that's 140% covered by fourth-quarter AFFO. The REIT is solely focused on owning single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing properties in the US. No debt maturities until 2027 and pending Fed rate cuts will set MDV up for 2024 outperformance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 48 | N/A | 41 | N/A | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 48 | 12 | 40 | 19 | 6 |
| 12/31/2026 | 47 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 6 |
| 3/31/2026 | 47 | -4 | 16 | 16 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 47 | -3 | 15 | 15 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 48 | -3 | 17 | 17 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 47 | -4 | 18 | 18 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 47 | -1 | 18 | 18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 47 | 2 | 18 | 18 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 48 | -1 | 18 | 18 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 49 | -5 | 17 | 17 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 49 | -3 | 17 | 17 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 48 | -10 | 17 | 17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 49 | -8 | 19 | 19 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 47 | 1 | 19 | 19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 45 | -1 | 21 | 21 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 44 | -7 | 17 | 17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 40 | -10 | 13 | 13 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 40 | -9 | 12 | 12 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 39 | -12 | 8 | 9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 38 | -2 | 10 | 10 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 37 | 5 | 8 | 8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 37 | 0 | 5 | 5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 37 | -1 | 3 | 4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 39 | -49 | 5 | 6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 37 | -54 | 3 | 4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 33 | -53 | 5 | 5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 30 | -52 | 6 | 6 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 25 | -4 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 24 | -5 | N/A | 8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 22 | -4 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 21 | -3 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 18 | -2 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 15 | 0 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 13 | -1 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 10 | 0 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 8 | -1 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 5 | -1 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 3 | -1 | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 2 | -2 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1 | -1 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 0 | -1 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MDV is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: MDV is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: MDV is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: MDV's revenue (0.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MDV's revenue (0.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MDV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/06 14:59 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Modiv Industrial, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Gaurav Mehta | Alliance Global Partners |
| John Massocca | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Jay Kornreich | Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. |