A Look at First Industrial Realty Trust’s Valuation Following Q3 Results and Upgraded 2025 Outlook

First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) just released its third quarter results, showing higher sales even as net income slipped compared to last year. At the same time, management raised its earnings guidance for 2025, signaling greater optimism ahead.

See our latest analysis for First Industrial Realty Trust.

The upbeat guidance from management seems to have helped fuel a wave of momentum, with a 9.7% rise in the share price over the past month and a 13.4% gain year-to-date. For long-term investors, the steady 60.5% total shareholder return over five years highlights resilience even as short-term results fluctuate.

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With shares near their recent highs and management projecting stronger results, investors are left to wonder whether growth prospects are fully reflected in the price or if there is still a buying opportunity ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.5% Undervalued

The latest narrative sets a fair value at $56.94, just above First Industrial Realty Trust’s last closing price of $56.10. This small gap highlights an ongoing debate among analysts about whether the future justifies paying up for shares at today’s levels.

The company is currently benefiting from exceptionally strong rental rate growth (cash rental rate increases of 33 to 38 percent on new and renewal leasing), likely reflecting the ongoing shift toward e-commerce and supply chain reorganization. Investors may be overestimating the sustainability of these double-digit rent spreads given evolving demand and increased tenant caution, which could inflate both current revenue and forward earnings expectations.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the calculations behind this call? The most followed narrative hinges on bold estimates, future revenue, margin shifts, and payout multiples usually assigned to growth giants. Find out what surprising projections are backing the current target and see what’s driving the numbers behind this near-fair valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $56.94 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent rent growth and limited new supply could support earnings beyond expectations. This could potentially challenge the view that shares are already fully valued.

Find out about the key risks to this First Industrial Realty Trust narrative.

Build Your Own First Industrial Realty Trust Narrative

If you think differently or want to see the numbers for yourself, you can quickly craft your own view with just a few clicks: Do it your way

A great starting point for your First Industrial Realty Trust research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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