A Fresh Look at Alexander & Baldwin’s Valuation Following Raised 2025 Earnings Guidance and Growth Progress

Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE:ALEX) just reported its third quarter results and increased its earnings outlook for 2025, signaling stronger financial performance and a focus on growth. Investors are watching as management highlights continued operational progress.

See our latest analysis for Alexander & Baldwin.

After a rocky stretch, Alexander & Baldwin's share price has seen a year-to-date decline of 9.4%, and its total shareholder return over the past twelve months is down 11.6%. Despite this pressure, management's upbeat guidance and ongoing acquisition hunt are fueling hopes for renewed momentum and a possible turnaround in the months ahead.

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With shares still trading at a sizable discount to analyst targets and new growth initiatives underway, the key question is whether the market is overlooking Alexander & Baldwin’s potential or if all future gains are already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.8% Undervalued

With Alexander & Baldwin’s fair value set at $21.25, well above the last closing price of $15.97, the strongest narrative signals significant upside that the market may not yet recognize.

Significant redevelopment and build-to-suit activity (adding over 150,000 sq. ft. of GLA by 2027 with $3.8M in anticipated stabilized NOI) positions the company to capture rising demand for industrial and necessity-based retail. Limited land availability in Hawaii ensures these new assets command premium rents, positively impacting long-term earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the projections fueling this bullish price target? The fair value calculation here depends on bold forecasts for shrinking profit margins and falling revenues, with a future profit multiple that catches the eye. Which numbers, and which logic, unlock this valuation? Discover the details inside the full breakdown.

Result: Fair Value of $21.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent reliance on Hawaii’s tourism and rising redevelopment costs could threaten Alexander & Baldwin’s earnings growth if local demand unexpectedly weakens.

Find out about the key risks to this Alexander & Baldwin narrative.

Another View: A Look Through Market Ratios

Taking a different approach, the company’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15.8 times. This is higher than the global industry average of 15.3 but remains well below similar peers at 34.1 and the fair ratio of 23.7. This gap suggests value by one measure, but it also signals how quickly sentiment could shift if the market re-rates the stock up or down. Could this hidden spread be the real opportunity, or is it a warning sign for future volatility?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Alexander & Baldwin Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can build and shape your own view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alexander & Baldwin research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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