Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.032 (up from US$0.072 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$245.7m (up 18% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$4.42m (up US$14.4m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from net loss in 2Q 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 34%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 1.9%, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 27
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: FFO: US$273.7m per share (up from US$0.59 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$273.7m (up 18% from 1Q 2021). Funds from operations (FFO): US$106.1m (up 31% from 1Q 2021). FFO margin: 39% (up from 35% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.7%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buying Opportunity • Apr 05
Now 21% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be US$70.26, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 51%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.0% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 40% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$0.26 (down from US$0.51 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$942.4m (up 8.3% from FY 2020). Net income: US$35.5m (down 50% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 8.1% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.9%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.0%, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the reits industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 50% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 26
Independent Director recently bought US$520k worth of stock On the 21st of January, John Rippel bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$52.00 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold US$1.1m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Board Change • Oct 31
High number of new directors Independent Chair of the Board Cydney Donnell was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. Reported Earnings • Oct 27
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.082 loss per share (vs US$0.15 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$228.9m (up 13% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: US$11.4m (loss narrowed 43% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Executive Departure • Aug 26
President James Hopke has left the company On the 24th of August, James Hopke's tenure as President ended after 4.6 years in the role. As of June 2021, James still personally held 118.15k shares (US$5.5m worth at the time). A total of 3 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 6.58 years. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 12
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$0.11 to US$0.16. Revenue forecast steady at US$886.3m. Net income forecast to grow 455% next year vs 8.4% growth forecast for REITs industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$52.86. Share price was steady at US$48.83 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 06
Executive VP & CTO recently sold US$426k worth of stock On the 3rd of August, Jorge de Cardenas sold around 9k shares on-market at roughly US$49.75 per share. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$486k. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$5.8m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jul 27
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.068 loss per share (vs US$0.10 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$208.5m (up 12% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: US$9.40m (loss narrowed 32% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jun 05
Executive VP & COO notifies of intention to sell stock Jennifer Beese intends to sell 10k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 1st of June. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$48.62, it would amount to US$486k. Since March 2021, Jennifer has owned 31.18k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$5.4m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 05
Executive VP & COO recently sold US$486k worth of stock On the 2nd of June, Jennifer Beese sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$48.58 per share. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$694k. This was Jennifer's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$0.069 to US$0.091. Revenue forecast steady at US$851.6m. Net income forecast to grow 521% next year vs 11% growth forecast for REITs industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$47.88. Share price was steady at US$45.92 over the past week. Executive Departure • May 05
Independent Chairman of the Board Edward Lowenthal has left the company On the 28th of April, Edward Lowenthal's tenure as Independent Chairman of the Board ended after 5.7 years in the role. As of December 2020, Edward personally held 26.13k shares (US$1.1m worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 28
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$0.02 to US$0.069. Revenue forecast steady at US$840.5m. Net income forecast to grow 321% next year vs 5.5% growth forecast for REITs industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$45.13 to US$46.75. Share price was steady at US$44.82 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 27
President recently sold US$694k worth of stock On the 22nd of April, James Hopke sold around 15k shares on-market at roughly US$45.50 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was James' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Apr 21
First quarter 2021 earnings released: FFO US$0.59 per share (vs US$0.70 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a poor first quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$232.7m (down 6.7% from 1Q 2020). Funds from operations (FFO): US$81.2m (down 15% from 1Q 2020). FFO margin: 35% (down from 39% in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 14
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from US$0.11 to US$0.06 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$847.9m. Net income forecast to shrink 60% next year vs 5.5% growth forecast for REITs industry in the US . Consensus price target of US$45.13 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$43.70 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 01
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$0.086 to US$0.11. Revenue forecast steady at US$851.4m. Net income forecast to shrink 60% next year vs 6.5% growth forecast for REITs industry in the US . Consensus price target of US$45.13 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$43.17 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 10
Analysts update estimates The 2021 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate was lowered from US$0.15 to US$0.02. Revenue estimate was approximately flat at US$843.5m. Net income is expected to shrink by 50% next year compared to 4.1% growth forecast for the REITs industry in the US . The consensus price target of US$45.50 was unchanged from the last update. Share price stayed mostly flat at US$42.12 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: FFO US$2.04 per share (vs US$2.55 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$870.6m (down 7.7% from FY 2019). Funds from operations (FFO): US$281.1m (down 20% from FY 2019). FFO margin: 32% (down from 37% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 24
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 20%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the REITs industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 12
New 90-day high: US$43.85 The company is up 8.0% from its price of US$40.70 on 13 November 2020. The American market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the REITs industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$49.56 per share. Executive Departure • Jan 29
Independent Director has left the company On the 27th of January, Carla Sublett's tenure as Independent Director ended after 1.6 years in the role. As of September 2020, Carla personally held 5.99k shares (US$209k worth at the time). Carla is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 04
New 90-day high: US$42.64 The company is up 19% from its price of US$35.82 on 04 September 2020. The American market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the REITs industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$48.31 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: FFO US$0.33 per share The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$202.7m (down 11% from 3Q 2019). Funds from operations (FFO): US$45.0m (down 48% from 3Q 2019). FFO margin: 22% (down from 38% in 3Q 2019). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 10
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 5.1% compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the REITs industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 03
New 90-day high: US$38.03 The company is up 8.0% from its price of US$35.26 on 05 August 2020. The American market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the REITs industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$50.20 per share. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total funds from operations (FFO) of US$281.0m, down 25% from the prior year. Total revenue was US$893.5m over the last 12 months, down 4.3% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Oct 28
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.9% at US$191.7m. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.2% at -US$0.15. Revenue is expected to shrink by 5.0% over the next year, compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the REITs industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 03
New 90-day high: US$37.76 The company is up 5.0% from its price of US$36.06 on 02 July 2020. The American market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the REITs industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$52.74 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 25
CEO & Director recently sold US$4.2m worth of stock On the 22nd of September, William Bayless sold around 120k shares on-market at roughly US$35.12 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was William's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 22
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate was lowered from US$0.52 to US$0.45. Revenue estimate was approximately flat at US$839.7m. Net income is expected to shrink by 46% next year compared to 19% decline forecast for the REITs industry in the US. The consensus price target of US$40.30 was unchanged from the last update. Share price is down by 6.2% to US$34.40 over the past week.