Is Zillow Group (NASDAQ:ZG) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 25, 2022
NasdaqGS:ZG
Source: Shutterstock

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZG) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Zillow Group

How Much Debt Does Zillow Group Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2021 Zillow Group had debt of US$4.44b, up from US$2.08b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$3.22b in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.23b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:ZG Debt to Equity History January 25th 2022

How Strong Is Zillow Group's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Zillow Group had liabilities of US$3.11b due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.96b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$3.22b as well as receivables valued at US$228.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.62b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Of course, Zillow Group has a titanic market capitalization of US$13.5b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zillow Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

In the last year Zillow Group wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 45%, to US$5.1b. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.

Caveat Emptor

Even though Zillow Group managed to grow its top line quite deftly, the cold hard truth is that it is losing money on the EBIT line. Indeed, it lost US$35m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through US$3.4b of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Zillow Group has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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