Phillips Edison (PECO): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Q3 Results and Upgraded 2025 Earnings Outlook

Phillips Edison (PECO) is making headlines this week after topping earnings estimates for the third quarter and boosting its full-year 2025 earnings guidance. This signals continued confidence in its business model.

See our latest analysis for Phillips Edison.

The upbeat third quarter and full-year guidance bump have sparked some optimism around Phillips Edison, but the share price has not quite matched the momentum yet. Over the past year, total shareholder return is down 2.2%, even as recent quarters showcased expanding earnings and savvy property acquisitions. This suggests many investors remain cautious but may be waiting for further catalysts. Still, Phillips Edison’s three-year total return sits at an impressive 27.5%, which hints at resilient long-term performance and underlying demand for its retail-focused assets.

If this steady outlook has you wondering what else could offer surprising growth, now’s a great time to broaden your scope and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

The key question now is whether investors are overlooking hidden value in Phillips Edison, or if the recent performance and strong outlook are already fully reflected in the share price. Is there a buying opportunity here, or has the market already anticipated next year’s growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.5% Undervalued

Compared to the last close at $34.66, the most widely followed narrative points to a fair value that is more than 11% higher, raising the stakes for those watching from the sidelines.

Sustained preference for omnichannel shopping and last-mile convenience is reinforcing leasing momentum at grocery-anchored properties. This supports robust leasing spreads (20%+ on renewals, 30%+ on new leases) and embedded rent escalations, both of which drive recurring revenue and gradual net margin expansion as tenants prioritize locations that fit hybrid consumer behavior.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative points to value others may be missing? There is a bold set of growth projections and a striking profit forecast fueling this price target. The path to fair value is powered by expansion and rising margins. Discover the surprising assumptions that make this outlook so compelling.

Result: Fair Value of $39.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent inflation or a major shift to digital shopping could dampen occupancy and earnings. This could challenge the bullish narrative going forward.

Find out about the key risks to this Phillips Edison narrative.

Build Your Own Phillips Edison Narrative

Keep in mind, the analysis above is just one story. If you have your own take or want to investigate with fresh eyes, you can build your version in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Phillips Edison research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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