Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For The St. Joe Company's (NYSE:JOE) Shares

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.8x The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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For example, consider that St. Joe's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for St. Joe

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on St. Joe's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

St. Joe's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.3%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 7.3% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that St. Joe is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of St. Joe revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for St. Joe that you need to be mindful of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on St. Joe, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.