Stock Analysis

# An Intrinsic Calculation For Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:PBH) Suggests It's 43% Undervalued

### Key Insights

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:PBH) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Prestige Consumer Healthcare

## The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

#### 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Levered FCF (\$, Millions) US\$226.9m US\$258.4m US\$271.3m US\$269.0m US\$275.0m US\$282.0m US\$286.5m US\$291.6m US\$297.0m US\$302.7m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 1.60% Est @ 1.76% Est @ 1.86% Est @ 1.94% Present Value (\$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% US\$212 US\$226 US\$222 US\$206 US\$197 US\$189 US\$180 US\$171 US\$163 US\$156

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US\$1.9b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US\$303m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.1%) = US\$6.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US\$6.5b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US\$3.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US\$5.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US\$60.0, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

## The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Prestige Consumer Healthcare as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

### SWOT Analysis for Prestige Consumer Healthcare

Strength
• Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
• No major weaknesses identified for PBH.
Opportunity
• Expected to breakeven next year.
• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
• Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Prestige Consumer Healthcare, we've put together three essential aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that Prestige Consumer Healthcare is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does PBH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.