Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Bounce

Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) shares have shifted over the past month, catching the attention of investors interested in the pharmaceutical space. The stock’s recent movement follows a period of moderate gains, even though the broader market has faced headwinds.

See our latest analysis for Novo Nordisk.

Novo Nordisk’s share price has climbed 4.7% over the past month, bouncing back a bit after a difficult year for shareholders. The 12-month total shareholder return is still down over 50%. While the short-term momentum is encouraging, long-term results remind investors to balance optimism with a clear view on underlying fundamentals and valuation.

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This recent rally raises an important question for investors: Is Novo Nordisk undervalued after last year’s decline, or is the market already factoring in every bit of future growth potential here?

Most Popular Narrative: 52.8% Undervalued

At $56.93 per share, Novo Nordisk’s price sits far below the narrative’s fair value estimate of $120.72. This disconnect is at the heart of a detailed valuation, drawing on deep-dive financial projections and scenario analysis to highlight what’s being missed by the market.

The pipeline remains robust, with the following highlights: Oral Wegovy is under FDA review with a decision due in late 2025. CagriSema, a next-generation GLP-1/GIP, is expected to launch in 2026. Amycretin, an early-stage GLP-1/amylin fusion drug, has shown up to 24% weight loss at 36 weeks. Additionally, Novo has obtained CV label expansion for Wegovy, significantly enlarging its addressable market beyond weight management. Global demand remains supply-constrained, and long-term GLP-1 adoption trends are still in early stages. Novo’s pricing power also remains intact globally outside the US, and early uptake in Asia-Pacific and LATAM appears robust.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the bold assumptions powering this valuation? One number stands out, and it is all about how Novo Nordisk turns future pipeline potential into market-beating earnings. Don’t miss the full breakdown behind this optimistic price target.

Result: Fair Value of $120.72 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy shifts or unexpected competition could significantly change the outlook. Investors should stay alert to any rapid developments ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Novo Nordisk narrative.

Build Your Own Novo Nordisk Narrative

If you see things differently or want your own take on Novo Nordisk, you can quickly build your own data-driven perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Novo Nordisk research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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