Will KEYTRUDA’s New Efficacy Data and $3B Facility Change Merck’s (MRK) Growth Story?

• In October 2025, Merck announced a series of pivotal clinical trial results at the ESMO Congress, including long-term data showing sustained survival benefits of KEYTRUDA across non-small cell lung cancer, muscle-invasive bladder cancer, and platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, as well as the start of construction on a US$3 billion pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Virginia.
• These developments highlight Merck's ongoing leadership in oncology innovation and its substantial commitment to expanding manufacturing capacity and addressing critical healthcare needs globally.
• We'll examine how KEYTRUDA's robust efficacy data across major cancers could impact Merck's long-term revenue expectations and pipeline outlook.

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Merck Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in Merck, an investor typically needs confidence in the company’s ability to deliver long-term growth through new products and advancements, especially as it prepares for the loss of exclusivity on KEYTRUDA. The recent clinical trial results confirming sustained survival benefits for KEYTRUDA in multiple cancers strengthen confidence around short-term revenue catalysts, but do not materially alter the biggest risk: replacing KEYTRUDA’s future revenue once it faces generic competition.

Among Merck’s latest announcements, the start of construction on a new US$3 billion manufacturing facility is especially relevant. This investment is set to expand production capacity, support anticipated growth from new launches, and may help reduce exposure to potential supply chain disruptions and tariff risks tied to pharmaceuticals.

On the other hand, investors should be aware of the potential for significant revenue decline from Merck’s lead product once exclusivity expires…

Read the full narrative on Merck (it's free!)

Merck's narrative projects $72.0 billion in revenue and $24.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and a $7.9 billion increase in earnings from $16.4 billion today.

Uncover how Merck's forecasts yield a $102.33 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty-two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely, from US$74.77 to US$207.62 per share. As Merck’s revenue growth hinges on new products offsetting future patent loss, these differing outlooks highlight how much investors’ views can fluctuate, explore multiple perspectives before forming your own view.

Explore 32 other fair value estimates on Merck - why the stock might be worth 13% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Merck Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Merck research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Merck research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Merck's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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