Merck (MRK) Is Up 6.0% After Dividend Boost, Positive Trial Results, and Cidara Acquisition Announcement – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In November 2025, Merck announced a quarterly dividend increase and released positive clinical trial results for both WINREVAIR in pulmonary hypertension and enlicitide, its investigational oral PCSK9 inhibitor, alongside updates on a share buyback and the planned acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics for US$9.2 billion.
• The promising outcomes for WINREVAIR and enlicitide, both targeting significant unmet needs in cardiovascular and pulmonary health, signal Merck's ongoing commitment to advancing innovative therapies while enhancing shareholder returns.
• We’ll next consider how the successful Phase 2 results for WINREVAIR impact Merck’s investment narrative and growth outlook.

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Merck Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Merck shareholder today, you need to believe that its expanding drug pipeline and recent acquisitions can offset the risk of future revenue declines from products like KEYTRUDA facing loss of exclusivity. While the positive WINREVAIR Phase 2 results and the quarterly dividend increase may boost sentiment, these developments do not materially alter the near-term catalyst: whether Merck's new therapies ramp quickly enough to fill anticipated revenue gaps from patent expiries. The most significant risk remains Merck's ability to transition from dependence on flagship brands to a broader portfolio of growth drivers.

Among the recent announcements, Merck’s planned acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics for US$9.2 billion stands out. This deal highlights management's focus on diversifying beyond oncology and vaccines and could be an important step in strengthening Merck’s late-stage pipeline, reinforcing the thesis that business development is key to its future growth story. However, how effectively these moves translate into sustainable earnings is still a significant question.

Yet, in contrast to the optimism around new product launches, it's crucial for investors to consider the actual pace at which Merck’s pipeline can replace...

Read the full narrative on Merck (it's free!)

Merck's narrative projects $72.0 billion revenue and $24.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and a $7.9 billion earnings increase from $16.4 billion today.

Uncover how Merck's forecasts yield a $102.33 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$77 to US$201 per share. With strong pipeline expansion efforts, the company's ability to close its post-KEYTRUDA revenue gap remains a concern for many.

Explore 29 other fair value estimates on Merck - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Merck Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Merck research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Merck research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Merck's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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