Will New Obesity and Oncology Data Change Eli Lilly's (LLY) Obesity‑Led Leadership Narrative?

• Eli Lilly recently reported strong Phase 3 results for its next-generation obesity drugs, including the oral GLP‑1 pill orforglipron for weight maintenance and the triple‑agonist retatrutide for weight loss and knee osteoarthritis, while also expanding manufacturing capacity and advancing oncology assets like Inluriyo and Jaypirca.
• Together, these updates underline Lilly’s attempt to build a broad obesity and specialty medicine franchise that spans injectable and oral treatments, long-term weight management, and oncology, potentially reinforcing the company’s existing dependence on high-demand GLP‑1 therapies.
• We’ll now look at how the orforglipron weight-maintenance data could reshape Eli Lilly’s investment narrative around obesity leadership and risks.

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Eli Lilly Investment Narrative Recap

Eli Lilly’s story rests on belief in durable demand for its obesity and specialty medicines, supported by a deep GLP 1 pipeline and heavy manufacturing build out. The new ATTAIN MAINTAIN data for orforglipron strengthens the near term obesity catalyst by extending Lilly’s reach into oral weight maintenance, while the biggest current risk remains pricing and reimbursement pressure on high cost GLP 1 therapies rather than any single trial outcome.

Among recent announcements, the US$6 billion Huntsville, Alabama manufacturing investment ties directly into the orforglipron pill story, since the site is expected to produce this oral GLP 1. For investors, the combination of positive maintenance data and concrete capacity expansion keeps the near term focus firmly on how quickly Lilly can scale supply and access for obesity treatments, while still managing exposure to payer and policy risk.

Yet beneath the strong trial headlines, rising pressure on GLP 1 pricing and coverage is a risk investors should be aware of as...

Read the full narrative on Eli Lilly (it's free!)

Eli Lilly's narrative projects $89.1 billion revenue and $34.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 18.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $20.4 billion earnings increase from $13.8 billion today.

Uncover how Eli Lilly's forecasts yield a $1024 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Forty Simply Wall St Community members place Eli Lilly’s fair value anywhere between US$650 and about US$1,429, with many clustered around US$960 to US$1,120. Against that wide spread of views, the fresh orforglipron maintenance data sharpens the obesity catalyst but also brings the concentration and pricing risks for GLP 1 driven earnings into clearer focus for the company’s future performance.

Explore 42 other fair value estimates on Eli Lilly - why the stock might be worth 38% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Eli Lilly Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Eli Lilly research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Eli Lilly research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Eli Lilly's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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