Eli Lilly and Company Just Missed EPS By 26%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$824 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$3.06, some 26% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$13b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Eli Lilly. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Eli Lilly's 25 analysts is for revenues of US$59.5b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 72% to US$21.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$59.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$22.16 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Eli Lilly

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$982, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Eli Lilly, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$1,190 and the most bearish at US$650 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Eli Lilly's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Eli Lilly's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 29% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Eli Lilly to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Eli Lilly. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Eli Lilly analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Eli Lilly you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.