Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XERS) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XERS) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 101% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Xeris Biopharma Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Pharmaceuticals industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Xeris Biopharma Holdings

What Does Xeris Biopharma Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

Xeris Biopharma Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S ratio from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Keen to find out how analysts think Xeris Biopharma Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Xeris Biopharma Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 55% gain to the company's top line. Spectacularly, three year revenue growth has ballooned by several orders of magnitude, thanks in part to the last 12 months of revenue growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 19% per year over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 46% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Xeris Biopharma Holdings' P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Xeris Biopharma Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Xeris Biopharma Holdings' revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Xeris Biopharma Holdings (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.