Stock Analysis

Broker Revenue Forecasts For Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERV) Are Surging Higher

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Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERV) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Verve Therapeutics will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.

Following the latest upgrade, the eleven analysts covering Verve Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$15m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 5.0% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$2.68 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$13m and US$2.93 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

View our latest analysis for Verve Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:VERV Earnings and Revenue Growth May 14th 2024

The consensus price target fell 14%, to US$26.89, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Verve Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 128% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Verve Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Verve Therapeutics is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Verve Therapeutics' future valuation. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Verve Therapeutics.

Analysts are definitely bullish on Verve Therapeutics, but no company is perfect. Indeed, you should know that there are several potential concerns to be aware of, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. You can learn more, and discover the 3 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Verve Therapeutics is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.