Downgrade: Here's How Analysts See ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRY) Performing In The Near Term

One thing we could say about the analysts on ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRY) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of US$13.15 reflecting a 14% rise in the past week. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

Following the latest downgrade, the six analysts covering ARS Pharmaceuticals provided consensus estimates of US$83m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a small 6.8% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Following this this downgrade, earnings are now expected to tip over into loss-making territory, with the analysts forecasting losses of US$1.36 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$125m and losses of US$0.36 per share in 2025. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for ARS Pharmaceuticals

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$29.50, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.8% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 126% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ARS Pharmaceuticals is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that ARS Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of ARS Pharmaceuticals.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ARS Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.