Sage Therapeutics (NasdaqGM:SAGE) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SAGE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SAGE ($41.23) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($233.26)

SAGE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

SAGE Stock Overview

Sage Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines to treat central nervous system disorders.

Rewards

Trading at 82.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 66.68% per year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Sage Therapeutics Competitors

Twist Bioscience

NasdaqGS:TWST

US$2.2b

Xenon Pharmaceuticals

NasdaqGM:XENE

US$2.3b

SpringWorks Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:SWTX

US$1.7b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

NasdaqGS:RARE

US$3.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Sage Therapeutics
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$41.23
52 Week High	US$47.75
52 Week Low	US$27.36
Beta	1.37
1 Month Change	6.68%
3 Month Change	19.27%
1 Year Change	-8.42%
3 Year Change	-70.45%
5 Year Change	-34.00%
Change since IPO	37.43%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 02

Sage Therapeutics GAAP EPS of -$2.13 beats by $0.02, revenue of $1.5M misses by $0.27M

Sage Therapeutics press release (NASDAQ:SAGE): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$2.13 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.5M (-8.5% Y/Y) misses by $0.27M. Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of June 30, 2022 were $1.5 billion compared to $1.6 billion at March 31, 2022 Rolling NDA submission for zuranolone in MDD and PPD remains on track, with completion expected in the second half of 2022 Announced positive topline data from the Phase 3 SKYLARK Study evaluating 50 mg zuranolone for PPD Enrolling multiple Phase 2 studies across neuropsychiatry and neurology franchises, additional trials expected to initiate throughout 2022 Cash and cash equivalents, anticipated funding from ongoing collaborations, and potential revenue, expected to support operations into 2025

Jun 15

We're Hopeful That Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the...

Shareholder Returns

	SAGE	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	6.9%	3.9%	1.0%
1Y	-8.4%	-22.7%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: SAGE exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -22.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SAGE exceeded the US Market which returned -20% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SAGE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SAGE volatility
SAGE Average Weekly Movement	6.2%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	11.1%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: SAGE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SAGE's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2010	471	Barry Greene	https://www.sagerx.com

Sage Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines to treat central nervous system disorders. Its lead product candidate is ZULRESSO, an intravenous formulation of brexanolone for the treatment of postpartum depression (PPD) in adults. The company’s product pipeline also includes zuranolone, a neuroactive steroid, which is in Phase III clinical trials for treating PPD, major depressive disorders, treatment resistant disorders, generalized anxiety disorders, and bipolar depression; and SAGE-324, a compound that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat essential tremors, as well as has completed Phase I clinical trial for epilepsy and Parkinson’s diseases.

Sage Therapeutics Fundamentals Summary

How do Sage Therapeutics's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SAGE fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.45b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$503.20m
Revenue (TTM)	US$6.16m

397.5x

P/S Ratio

-4.9x

P/E Ratio

Is SAGE overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SAGE income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$6.16m
Cost of Revenue	US$314.96m
Gross Profit	-US$308.79m
Other Expenses	US$194.40m
Earnings	-US$503.20m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-8.47
Gross Margin	-5,009.65%
Net Profit Margin	-8,163.50%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did SAGE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SAGE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SAGE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SAGE. This is calculated by dividing SAGE's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SAGE's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.45b

SAGE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	154.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-1.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does SAGE's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

SAGE PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for SAGE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.8x
TWST Twist Bioscience	2.7x	0.2%	US$2.2b
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals	2.9x	10.5%	US$2.3b
SWTX SpringWorks Therapeutics	5.2x	15.9%	US$1.7b
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical	4.4x	37.1%	US$3.0b
SAGE Sage Therapeutics	1.6x	41.4%	US$2.4b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: SAGE is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.6x) compared to the peer average (3.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SAGE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: SAGE is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.6x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.7x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SAGE's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SAGE PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	1.6x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SAGE's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SAGE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SAGE ($41.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($233.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SAGE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Sage Therapeutics forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

41.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SAGE is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: SAGE is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: SAGE is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SAGE's revenue (66.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SAGE's revenue (66.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SAGE is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Past Performance

How has Sage Therapeutics performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

14.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SAGE is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: SAGE is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SAGE is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 14.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare SAGE's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: SAGE is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (29.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: SAGE has a negative Return on Equity (-33.45%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Sage Therapeutics's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SAGE's short term assets ($1.6B) exceed its short term liabilities ($89.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: SAGE's short term assets ($1.6B) exceed its long term liabilities ($7.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SAGE is debt free.

Reducing Debt: SAGE has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: SAGE has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if SAGE has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Sage Therapeutics's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Sage Therapeutics Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Sage Therapeutics dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Sage Therapeutics)	n/a
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.6%
Industry Average (Biotechs)	2.8%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Sage Therapeutics)	0%

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate SAGE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate SAGE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SAGE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SAGE's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as SAGE has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Barry Greene (59 yo)

2yrs

Tenure

US$58,864,150

Compensation

Mr. Barry E. Greene serves as President and Chief Executive Officer at Sage Therapeutics, Inc. since December 15, 2020 and its Director since October 1, 2020. He is a Director at BCLS Acquisition Corp., si...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Barry Greene's Compensation vs Sage Therapeutics Earnings

How has Barry Greene's remuneration changed compared to Sage Therapeutics's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	-US$503m
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	-US$484m
Dec 31 2021	US$59m	US$735k	-US$458m
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$642m
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$666m
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	US$637m
Dec 31 2020	US$836k	US$53k	US$606m

Compensation vs Market: Barry's total compensation ($USD58.86M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.84M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Barry's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SAGE's management team is considered experienced (3.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SAGE's board of directors are considered experienced (8.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGM:SAGE Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Role	Shares	Max Price
05 May 22	BuyUS$251,563	George Golumbeski	Individual		8,000	US$31.45

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of SAGE?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
State or Government	0	0%
Individual Insiders	1,216,360	2.0%
Public Companies	6,241,473	10.3%
Institutions	52,887,302	87.6%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 81.73% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
10.5%	Biogen Inc.	6,241,473	$257.3m	0%	no data
10.06%	FMR LLC	5,977,078	$246.4m	6.14%	0.02%
7.99%	Wellington Management Group LLP	4,749,623	$195.8m	-32.1%	0.03%
7.98%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	4,742,839	$195.5m	2.55%	no data
7.14%	BlackRock, Inc.	4,241,813	$174.9m	54.01%	no data
5%	Bellevue Asset Management AG	2,973,178	$122.6m	-2.6%	1.29%
4.94%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	2,934,064	$121.0m	3.48%	0.01%
3.5%	T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.	2,077,534	$85.7m	-3.75%	0.01%
2.72%	Marshall Wace LLP	1,615,306	$66.6m	154.77%	0.17%
2.43%	J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.	1,443,483	$59.5m	-2.65%	0.01%
2.27%	Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	1,350,150	$55.7m	164.1%	0.15%
1.84%	Tavistock Life Sciences	1,094,000	$45.1m	0%	2.13%
1.61%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	954,373	$39.3m	33.17%	0.01%
1.43%	Palo Alto Investors LP	851,409	$35.1m	-0.04%	2.61%
1.42%	First Trust Advisors LP	844,652	$34.8m	0%	0.04%
1.3%	Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC	772,356	$31.8m	-5.3%	0.01%
1.29%	Janus Henderson Group plc	767,049	$31.6m	-25.53%	0.02%
1.28%	D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P.	760,685	$31.4m	-17.9%	0.06%
1.13%	Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P.	671,553	$27.7m	748.22%	0.01%
1.1%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	652,897	$26.9m	281.74%	0.01%
1.06%	Manulife Asset Management	626,928	$25.8m	-10.96%	0.02%
1.02%	Northern Trust Global Investments	603,959	$24.9m	130.14%	no data
0.96%	Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management	567,957	$23.4m	-1.95%	0.01%
0.9%	Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments	537,149	$22.1m	-1.26%	no data
0.87%	Steven Paul	514,572	$21.2m	0%	no data

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
SAGE	NasdaqGM (Nasdaq Global Market)	Yes	Common Stock	US	USD	Jul 2014
SG7	BST (Boerse-Stuttgart)	Yes	Common Stock	DE	EUR	Jul 2014
SG7	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Stock	DE	EUR	Jul 2014

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31