REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.0% to US$13.04 in the past week. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 3.0% short of analyst estimates at US$22m, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was US$1.05, 16% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for REGENXBIO

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from REGENXBIO's ten analysts is for revenues of US$95.2m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$4.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$117.2m and losses of US$4.97 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

There was no major change to the US$39.55average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values REGENXBIO at US$52.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, REGENXBIO is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on REGENXBIO. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for REGENXBIO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for REGENXBIO you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com