Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

NasdaqGS:RARE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.0b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is RARE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RARE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RARE ($43.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($436.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RARE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RARE?

Key metric: As RARE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for RARE. This is calculated by dividing RARE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is RARE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio7.7x
SalesUS$522.75m
Market CapUS$4.04b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does RARE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for RARE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.2x
ALKS Alkermes
3.2x-0.7%US$4.8b
PTCT PTC Therapeutics
3.9x6.1%US$3.5b
ABCM Abcam
11.6x13.0%US$5.5b
FOLD Amicus Therapeutics
5.9x19.5%US$2.9b
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
7.7x31.6%US$4.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: RARE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does RARE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

134 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BIIB Biogen
2.3x1.3%US$21.72b
MRNA Moderna
3.1x5.8%US$15.50b
INCY Incyte
3.3x8.9%US$13.47b
EXAS Exact Sciences
4x9.1%US$10.75b
RARE 7.7xIndustry Avg. 10.2xNo. of Companies134PS01632486480+
134 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: RARE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (9.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RARE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RARE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio7.7x
Fair PS Ratio5.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: RARE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RARE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$43.82
US$92.95
+112.1%
27.4%US$140.00US$48.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$47.63
US$92.43
+94.1%
27.9%US$140.00US$48.00n/a21
Nov ’25US$50.99
US$91.57
+79.6%
28.2%US$140.00US$46.00n/a21
Oct ’25US$56.51
US$90.00
+59.3%
29.4%US$140.00US$46.00n/a21
Sep ’25US$56.78
US$90.00
+58.5%
29.4%US$140.00US$46.00n/a21
Aug ’25US$44.15
US$90.05
+104.0%
31.0%US$140.00US$43.00n/a21
Jul ’25US$41.12
US$89.95
+118.8%
30.9%US$140.00US$45.00n/a21
Jun ’25US$40.14
US$89.62
+123.3%
31.2%US$140.00US$48.00n/a21
May ’25US$43.30
US$89.52
+106.8%
30.7%US$140.00US$48.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$46.97
US$90.05
+91.7%
31.2%US$140.00US$48.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$53.69
US$89.85
+67.3%
31.3%US$140.00US$48.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$44.10
US$90.75
+105.8%
31.5%US$140.00US$47.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$47.82
US$89.70
+87.6%
32.9%US$140.00US$43.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$40.16
US$91.74
+128.4%
32.8%US$140.00US$43.00US$47.6319
Nov ’24US$36.04
US$92.00
+155.3%
33.5%US$140.00US$43.00US$50.9919
Oct ’24US$35.65
US$91.16
+155.7%
32.6%US$140.00US$47.00US$56.5119
Sep ’24US$37.78
US$91.40
+141.9%
31.7%US$140.00US$47.00US$56.7820
Aug ’24US$42.92
US$92.15
+114.7%
31.6%US$140.00US$49.00US$44.1520
Jul ’24US$46.13
US$92.25
+100.0%
31.4%US$140.00US$51.00US$41.1220
Jun ’24US$49.61
US$90.95
+83.3%
32.6%US$140.00US$48.00US$40.1420
May ’24US$44.03
US$92.21
+109.4%
32.9%US$140.00US$47.00US$43.3019
Apr ’24US$40.10
US$91.11
+127.2%
33.7%US$140.00US$47.00US$46.9718
Mar ’24US$45.65
US$90.84
+99.0%
33.4%US$140.00US$47.00US$53.6919
Feb ’24US$45.24
US$91.37
+102.0%
34.8%US$143.00US$48.00US$44.1019
Jan ’24US$46.33
US$93.53
+101.9%
34.5%US$143.00US$49.00US$47.8219
Dec ’23US$37.81
US$97.00
+156.5%
34.7%US$143.00US$49.00US$40.1618

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 09:35
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/26 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is covered by 37 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jack AllenBaird
Michael UlzBaird
Huidong WangBarclays