uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Overall results were decent, with revenues of US$11m beating estimates by65%. Statutory losses were subsequently less thanthe analysts had expected, at US$1.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on uniQure after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for uniQure

Following the latest results, uniQure's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$46.0m in 2024. This would be a major 66% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 23% to US$4.51. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$52.3m and losses of US$4.49 per share in 2024. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$19.00, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values uniQure at US$28.33 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.06. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting uniQure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 175% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that uniQure is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on uniQure. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for uniQure going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for uniQure (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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