Earnings Update: uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 12% to US$5.59. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$16m in revenue arriving 4.8% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$6.59, some 3.1% below consensus predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for uniQure

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from uniQure's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$58.0m in 2024. This would reflect a huge 266% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$4.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$64.3m and losses of US$4.04 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to to its losses per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 25% to US$22.62, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of US$37.48 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.01. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting uniQure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 266% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 26% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that uniQure is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at uniQure. They also downgraded uniQure's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of uniQure's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on uniQure. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for uniQure you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.