Analyst Forecasts For uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Are Surging Higher

uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects.

After the upgrade, the 15 analysts covering uniQure are now predicting revenues of US$244m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 122% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 61% to US$1.28. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$188m and US$3.04 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

View our latest analysis for uniQure

The consensus price target fell 8.5%, to €42.66, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values uniQure at €89.88 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €13.93. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the uniQure's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that uniQure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 190% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 50% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that uniQure is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around uniQure's prospects. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The declining price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious upgrade to this year's expectations, it might be time to take another look at uniQure.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.