Phathom Pharmaceuticals Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
Phathom Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 57.5% and 28.4% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 57.7% per annum.
Key information
57.5%
Earnings growth rate
57.65%
EPS growth rate
| Pharmaceuticals earnings growth | 14.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 28.4% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 04 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 02
PHAT: Regulatory Exclusivity Outlook Will Support Anticipated 2026 Profitability Timeline
Narrative update on Phathom Pharmaceuticals The updated analyst price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals has moved to $23.70, with analysts pointing to refreshed models that factor in revised revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, an adjusted future P/E, and recent research highlighting expectations around potential profitability timing, regulatory exclusivity and consumer marketing uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Phathom Pharmaceuticals highlights a mix of optimism around the path to profitability and caution around long term exclusivity and commercial execution.Narrative Update • Apr 15
PHAT: Regulatory Exclusivity Outlook Supports Path To 2026 Profitability
Phathom Pharmaceuticals' fair value estimate has shifted from $22.90 to $23.70 as analysts factor in higher long term profit margin assumptions, recent price target increases to $25 and $13, and updated views on regulatory exclusivity and potential generic competition after 2032. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research provides a mixed but useful view of how expectations are settling around Phathom Pharmaceuticals' execution and long term earnings power.
Narrative Update • Apr 01
PHAT: Profitability In 2026 Will Challenge Post 2032 Generic Overhang
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals is now aligned with a fair value estimate of about $13.62, with analysts pointing to updated models following Q4 results, refined assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as recent target increases to $13 and $25 that reflect views on regulatory exclusivity and the path toward potential profitability in early Q3 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Phathom Pharmaceuticals has centered on updated models following Q4 results, with analysts adjusting their targets to reflect revised assumptions on regulatory exclusivity, marketing execution and the timing of potential profitability.Narrative Update • Mar 18
PHAT: Profitability In 2026 Will Test Post 2032 Generic Assumptions
Narrative Update on Phathom Pharmaceuticals Analysts have raised Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price target to a range that now reaches up to $25, up from prior targets as low as $12, citing updated models after the Q4 earnings beat, revised assumptions around regulatory exclusivity and generic entry after 2032, and expectations for the company to work toward profitability in early Q3 2026. Analyst Commentary Analysts reviewing Phathom Pharmaceuticals after its Q4 earnings beat have adjusted their models and price targets, but with differing levels of enthusiasm.Narrative Update • Mar 04
PHAT: Profitability Expected In 2026 Could Reframe Long Term Generic Risk
Narrative Update on Phathom Pharmaceuticals The analyst price target underpinning our fair value view on Phathom Pharmaceuticals has shifted from $12 to $13. This reflects updated models that factor in the recent Q4 earnings beat, revised assumptions on regulatory exclusivity and potential generic entry after 2032, and expectations around the company's path toward potential profitability in early Q3 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 18
PHAT: Follow On Equity Raise Will Support Path To 2026 Profitability
Analysts have kept their $22.90 price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals broadly unchanged, citing only marginal adjustments to inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions in their valuation work. What's in the News Phathom Pharmaceuticals completed a follow on equity offering totaling approximately US$130.0 million.Narrative Update • Feb 04
PHAT: Equity Raise And 2026 Profitability Outlook Will Support Further Upside
Analysts have maintained their overall view on Phathom Pharmaceuticals, making only modest adjustments to assumptions such as revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. Taken together, these inputs support an unchanged fair value estimate of US$22.90 per share.Narrative Update • Jan 20
PHAT: Equity Raise And 2025 Profitability Outlook Will Support Further Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price assumptions for Phathom Pharmaceuticals, and the implied fair value remains at $22.90. Small changes to revenue growth, profit margin expectations, and future P/E assumptions have effectively offset one another.Seeking Alpha • Jan 09
Phathom: Why I'm Not Buying The Dip (Yet)
Summary Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT) remains a Hold as VOQUEZNA's commercial execution improves, but balance sheet leverage and dilution persist. Q4 prerelease shows VOQUEZNA revenue ramping (~15–17% Q/Q), with cost resets driving non-GAAP opex below restructuring targets. Equity raise of $130M at $16/share reduces near-term solvency risk but highlights ongoing obligations and ~11% dilution. Valuation remains stretched; PHAT is highly sensitive to execution, GTN stability, and post-2032 terminal value risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 08
Revenues Tell The Story For Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:PHAT) As Its Stock Soars 27%
Despite an already strong run, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) shares have been powering on, with a gain...Narrative Update • Jan 06
PHAT: Late-Stage Gastrointestinal Trials And 2025 Guidance Will Drive Upside Momentum
Analysts have maintained their price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals at US$22.90. This reflects only minor adjustments in key model inputs, including the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions, rather than any change in their overall view.Narrative Update • Dec 16
PHAT: Late-Stage Gastrointestinal Pipeline Progress Will Drive Upside Momentum
Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Phathom Pharmaceuticals from approximately $23.13 to $22.90 per share, reflecting modestly higher long term growth and margin expectations, offset by a lower projected valuation multiple. What's in the News First patient dosed in the Phase 2 pHalcon EoE-201 trial of VOQUEZNA tablets for eosinophilic esophagitis in adults, with topline results expected in 2027 (company announcement) Additional analyses from the pivotal Phase 3 pHalcon NERD-301 trial of VOQUEZNA in Non Erosive Reflux Disease published in the American Journal of Gastroenterology, highlighting benefits for nighttime GERD symptoms (company announcement, medical journal) Full year 2025 revenue guidance updated to a range of 170 million dollars to 175 million dollars, indicating expectations for continued commercial ramp (company guidance) Sanjeev Narula appointed Chief Financial and Business Officer, bringing extensive large cap pharma and transaction experience from prior CFO roles at Intra Cellular Therapies, Viatris, and Pfizer divisions (company announcement) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate has edged down slightly from approximately $23.13 to $22.90 per share.Narrative Update • Dec 01
PHAT: Clinical Pipeline Advances And Index Inclusion Will Support Upside Momentum
Analysts have maintained their price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals at $23.13 per share, citing consistent revenue growth expectations and stable profit margin forecasts as the basis for leaving their projections unchanged. What's in the News First patient dosed in Phase 2 pHalcon-EoE-201 clinical trial of VOQUEZNA tablets for eosinophilic esophagitis in adults, with primary and secondary results expected in 2027 (Key Developments) Updated full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $170 million to $175 million (Key Developments) New data from Phase 3 pHalcon-NERD-301 trial for VOQUEZNA published, showing improvements in nocturnal symptoms for Non-Erosive Reflux Disease and highlighting safety considerations (Key Developments) Appointment of Sanjeev Narula as Chief Financial and Business Officer, bringing extensive financial and strategic experience from leadership roles at Intra-Cellular Therapies, Viatris, and Pfizer (Key Developments) Added to S&P Pharmaceuticals Select Industry Index (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Consensus Analyst Price Target remains steady at $23.13 per share with no change from previous estimates.Narrative Update • Nov 17
PHAT: Early Clinical Trial Progress Will Drive Shares Higher
Analysts have maintained their fair value price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals at $23.13 per share. They cite only marginal adjustments to growth estimates and risk assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 01
PHAT: Rising Profit Margins Will Drive Stronger Shareholder Value Ahead
Analysts have raised their price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals from $21.38 to $23.13. They cite an improved profit margin outlook, despite more conservative revenue growth projections.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Gastroenterology Focus Will Unlock Enduring Market Potential
Analysts reaffirmed their price target for Phathom Pharmaceuticals at $21.38, citing 10-year market exclusivity for Voquezna, diminished generic risk, and robust launch metrics as drivers of renewed confidence and market opportunity. Analyst Commentary FDA granted 10-year market exclusivity for Voquezna tablets under GAIN, extending exclusivity to May 2032 with a likely pediatric extension through late 2032.Analysis Article • Jul 19
Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PHAT) 27% Share Price Plunge
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) shares have retraced a considerable 27% in the last month, reversing a...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PHAT) Revenues Despite 54% Price Jump
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced...New Narrative • May 09
Focused VOQUEZNA Marketing And Cost Cuts Will Secure 2032 Exclusivity
Phathom focuses on VOQUEZNA's market potential in GERD treatment to drive substantial revenue while aiming for profitability through strategic cost management.Analysis Article • Apr 18
Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PHAT) 27% Share Price Plunge
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) share price has dived 27% in the...Seeking Alpha • Dec 11
Phathom Pharmaceuticals: The Large Drop Is, Well, Unfathomable
Summary Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s vonoprazan received multiple approvals, but the stock price showed erratic behavior, spiking post-Q2 earnings and plummeting post-Q3 earnings. Despite significant prescription growth and revenue increases, Q3 showed slower progress, raising concerns about the drug's market uptake and second-line approval status. High SG&A expenses and limited cash runway pose financial risks, alongside unclear reasons for stagnant sales despite label expansions. I exited my PHAT position in August and have no plans to reinvest due to these uncertainties and financial concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 03
Following Up On Phathom Pharmaceuticals
Summary Today, we're following up on Phathom Pharmaceuticals to see how the marketing rollout of its flagship product VOQUENZA is proceeding. This drug received FDA clearance late last year and is aiming to displace Proton Pump Inhibitors in its market. Management has succeeded in getting the compound covered in most commercial plans and believes VOQUENZA have at least $3 billion in peak sales potential. However, the company is still seeing a significant quarterly cash burn rate and already has a decent chunk of debt on its balance sheet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 26
Phathom Pharmaceuticals: Time To Deliver Promise Of Voquezna After Frustrating Delays
Summary Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock has significantly declined since 2021, despite securing FDA approval for Vonoprazan to treat H. pylori infection and GERD. The company faced delays in launching its products due to the presence of a cancer-causing agent in commercial batches, but eventually received full FDA approval. PHAT aims to target a substantial market opportunity with Vonoprazan, potentially leading to a share price rally and challenging a billion-dollar market cap valuation. The delays in launching Voquenza have been frustrating, but now the company is conducting a full launch and may secure a lucrative label expansion with an approval in non-erosive GERD next month. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
Phathom: Undervalued Biotech With Possible GERD Treatment Label Expansion
Summary The FDA has set a target action date of July 19, 2024, for expanded approval of Voquenza, which would target the larger Non-Erosive GERD patient population. The global market for GERD therapies is expected to be $3.4 billion by 2032. A soon-to-be-initiated phase 3 study in 2024 is going to explore the use of Voquenza with "As Needed" dosing to treat Non-Erosive GERD patients. Voquenza may also be used to treat patients with another gastrointestinal disorder, such as eosinophilic esophagitis. A phase 2 study using this drug to treat this patient population is expected to be initiated in 2024. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 755 | 239 | 255 | 214 | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | 540 | 97 | 114 | 100 | 9 |
| 12/31/2026 | 334 | -54 | -45 | -53 | 9 |
| 3/31/2026 | 205 | -157 | -98 | -97 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 175 | -221 | -167 | -167 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 147 | -275 | -225 | -225 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 114 | -330 | -275 | -275 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 82 | -346 | -283 | -283 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 55 | -334 | -267 | -267 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 26 | -339 | -248 | -247 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 10 | -297 | -217 | -215 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 3 | -247 | -168 | -167 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1 | -202 | -139 | -138 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | N/A | -177 | -136 | -135 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | N/A | -185 | -139 | -138 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | N/A | -195 | -143 | -141 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | N/A | -198 | -148 | -147 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | N/A | -179 | -147 | -147 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | N/A | -164 | -141 | -141 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | N/A | -150 | -144 | -143 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | N/A | -144 | -149 | -148 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | N/A | -162 | -136 | -135 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | N/A | -159 | -128 | -127 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | N/A | -144 | -109 | -108 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | N/A | -129 | -71 | -70 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | N/A | -173 | -66 | -65 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | N/A | -207 | -52 | -51 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | N/A | -274 | -73 | -47 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | N/A | -255 | N/A | -37 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | N/A | -158 | N/A | -13 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | N/A | -90 | N/A | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -2 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PHAT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PHAT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: PHAT is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PHAT's revenue (28.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PHAT's revenue (28.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PHAT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 14:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jenna Davidner | Barclays |
| null null | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Kristen Kluska | Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. |