Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) Is Down 10.9% After Pivoting AXPAXLI To Single-Trial NDA Pathway – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Earlier in December 2025, Ocular Therapeutix said it now plans to file a New Drug Application for its wet AMD candidate AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) based on positive year-one data from the ongoing SOL-1 Phase 3 trial, with those data expected in the first quarter of 2026.
• This shift reflects recent feedback and public comments from the FDA that could allow AXPAXLI to pursue approval using a single pivotal trial and the 505(b)(2) pathway, potentially shortening the route to market if results support safety and efficacy.
• We’ll now examine how Ocular’s plan to seek approval on year-one SOL-1 data could reshape the company’s investment narrative and risk profile.

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Ocular Therapeutix Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ocular Therapeutix today, you have to believe AXPAXLI can convert its clinical profile into a meaningful wet AMD franchise, despite ongoing losses and dependence on this single asset. The decision to pursue an NDA on year one SOL-1 data sharpens the near term catalyst around Q1 2026 but also concentrates regulatory risk if those data or the FDA’s interpretation fall short.

The December 8 update, confirming plans to file an NDA via the 505(b)(2) pathway on positive year one SOL-1 data, is most relevant here. It potentially pulls forward the timing of a key regulatory decision, but also heightens the importance of trial execution quality, SPA alignment with the FDA, and Ocular’s ability to satisfy Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls requirements without delay.

Yet investors should also weigh how the FDA could still require more data than SOL-1 alone, a risk that...

Read the full narrative on Ocular Therapeutix (it's free!)

Ocular Therapeutix’s narrative projects $192.9 million revenue and $44.8 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Ocular Therapeutix's forecasts yield a $24.17 fair value, a 86% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$5 to US$27 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against this wide range, the company’s heavy reliance on AXPAXLI and the upcoming SOL-1 readout gives those differing opinions real consequences for how you think about Ocular’s future performance, so it is worth exploring several alternative viewpoints before deciding where you stand.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ocular Therapeutix - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Ocular Therapeutix Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ocular Therapeutix research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ocular Therapeutix research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ocular Therapeutix's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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