What Natera (NTRA)'s New Clinical Milestones and Expanded Prenatal Testing Mean for Shareholders

• In late October 2025, Natera announced a series of advancements, including an expanded 20-gene Fetal Focus prenatal test, promising clinical results for its blood-based colorectal cancer screening program, and positive phase 3 trial data from IMvigor011 supporting its Signatera assay for guiding bladder cancer treatment decisions.
• A highlight from these updates is Natera’s demonstration of its LinkedSNP technology’s ability to detect challenging genetic cases that other labs have missed, underscoring meaningful technical differentiation in the competitive genetic diagnostics market.
• We'll examine how these clinical and product milestones, especially the expanded Fetal Focus panel, may shape the company's investment outlook moving forward.

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Natera Investment Narrative Recap

To own Natera, investors must believe that accelerating adoption and clinical validation of advanced molecular diagnostics will drive real expansion in revenue and margin potential, ultimately justifying ongoing R&D investments and high operating costs. The recent product and clinical trial announcements highlight technical progress but do not materially change near-term commercial catalysts or address the company’s biggest risk: successful execution in scaling new indications, securing reimbursement, and managing losses as expenses rise. The most relevant new development is the Fetal Focus panel expansion, which represents meaningful product differentiation and strengthens the company’s case with payers and clinicians, but the ability to scale commercial uptake remains a key execution risk. In contrast, investors should remain mindful of persistent net losses and how ongoing increases in R&D and SG&A spending could delay the path to sustainable profitability if revenue growth lags...

Read the full narrative on Natera (it's free!)

Natera's outlook projects $3.0 billion in revenue and $110.9 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 15.2% annual revenue growth and a $364.1 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$253.2 million.

Uncover how Natera's forecasts yield a $202.50 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community for Natera range from US$49.54 up to US$268 per share. While optimism for further diagnostic adoption drives hopes for margin expansion, diversity in estimates signals that many readers see considerable uncertainty in the company's growth trajectory.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Natera - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Natera Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Natera research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Natera's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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