Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.9% to US$26.10 in the week after its latest annual results. Statutory results overall were mixed, with revenues coming in 28% lower than the analysts predicted. What's really surprising is that losses of US$5.42 per share were pretty much in line with forecasts, despite the revenue miss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Intellia Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Intellia Therapeutics from 22 analysts is for revenues of US$53.3m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 47% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$5.45. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$58.5m and losses of US$5.70 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

There was no major change to the US$74.56average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Intellia Therapeutics at US$144 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$24.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Intellia Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 47% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Intellia Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also downgraded Intellia Therapeutics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$74.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Intellia Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Intellia Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Intellia Therapeutics has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.