Does The Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NERV) Share Price Tend To Follow The Market?

If you own shares in Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NERV) then it’s worth thinking about how it contributes to the volatility of your portfolio, overall. In finance, Beta is a measure of volatility. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first type is company specific volatility. Investors use diversification across uncorrelated stocks to reduce this kind of price volatility across the portfolio. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks mimic the volatility of the market quite closely, while others demonstrate muted, exagerrated or uncorrelated price movements. Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). While we should keep in mind that Warren Buffett has cautioned that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk’, beta is still a useful factor to consider. To make good use of it you must first know that the beta of the overall market is one. A stock with a beta greater than one is more sensitive to broader market movements than a stock with a beta of less than one.

See our latest analysis for Minerva Neurosciences

What we can learn from NERV’s beta value

Given that it has a beta of 1.43, we can surmise that the Minerva Neurosciences share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If this beta value holds true in the future, Minerva Neurosciences shares are likely to rise more than the market when the market is going up, but fall faster when the market is going down. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Minerva Neurosciences’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NasdaqGM:NERV Income Statement, April 11th 2019
NasdaqGM:NERV Income Statement, April 11th 2019

Could NERV’s size cause it to be more volatile?

Minerva Neurosciences is a noticeably small company, with a market capitalisation of US$297m. Most companies this size are not always actively traded. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.

What this means for you:

Since Minerva Neurosciences has a reasonably high beta, it’s worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether NERV is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Minerva Neurosciences’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for NERV’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for NERV’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has NERV been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of NERV’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how NERV measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.