Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NBIX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.2b

Neurocrine Biosciences Valuation

Is NBIX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NBIX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$388.85
Fair Value
68.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NBIX ($122.96) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($388.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NBIX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NBIX?

Key metric: As NBIX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NBIX. This is calculated by dividing NBIX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NBIX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio39.8x
EarningsUS$305.80m
Market CapUS$12.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NBIX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.5x
UTHR United Therapeutics
11.5x7.29%US$13.8b
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical
21.9x18.66%US$11.4b
EXEL Exelixis
18.8x18.97%US$12.2b
HALO Halozyme Therapeutics
13.6x14.76%US$6.6b
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences
39.8x26.46%US$12.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals
2.6x-23.07%US$1.73b
NVAX Novavax
2.6x-45.35%US$1.25b
INBX Inhibrx Biosciences
0.1x-148.50%US$180.51m
CHRS Coherus BioSciences
1.9x-21.60%US$92.75m
NBIX 39.8xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NBIX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NBIX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio39.8x
Fair PE Ratio28.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NBIX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$122.96
US$159.40
+29.63%
12.79%US$192.00US$115.00n/a25
May ’26US$106.59
US$156.37
+46.70%
14.81%US$192.00US$96.00n/a25
Apr ’26US$107.00
US$163.57
+52.86%
11.02%US$192.00US$126.12n/a25
Mar ’26US$118.72
US$166.13
+39.93%
9.85%US$192.00US$138.00n/a25
Feb ’26US$151.82
US$169.92
+11.92%
8.49%US$192.00US$140.00n/a24
Jan ’26US$136.50
US$165.84
+21.50%
10.60%US$192.00US$121.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$126.75
US$163.46
+28.96%
10.32%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Nov ’25US$122.21
US$162.86
+33.26%
10.46%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Oct ’25US$114.15
US$168.72
+47.80%
10.51%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$127.06
US$169.52
+33.41%
10.48%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$153.15
US$167.15
+9.14%
10.30%US$216.00US$131.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$140.11
US$160.53
+14.57%
11.40%US$216.00US$111.00n/a27
Jun ’25US$135.41
US$160.38
+18.44%
11.75%US$216.00US$111.00n/a26
May ’25US$143.03
US$155.09
+8.43%
10.16%US$200.00US$111.00US$106.5928
Apr ’25US$141.38
US$151.79
+7.36%
10.89%US$200.00US$106.00US$107.0028
Mar ’25US$131.30
US$149.68
+14.00%
8.75%US$170.00US$106.00US$118.7228
Feb ’25US$142.45
US$145.70
+2.28%
10.97%US$170.00US$100.00US$151.8227
Jan ’25US$131.76
US$137.73
+4.53%
10.81%US$170.00US$100.00US$136.5027
Dec ’24US$117.12
US$135.27
+15.50%
12.63%US$170.00US$100.00US$126.7525
Nov ’24US$111.54
US$136.64
+22.50%
11.72%US$170.00US$100.00US$122.2125
Oct ’24US$112.50
US$129.76
+15.34%
11.46%US$160.00US$95.00US$114.1524
Sep ’24US$110.63
US$126.21
+14.09%
11.17%US$154.00US$95.00US$127.0624
Aug ’24US$103.44
US$125.17
+21.01%
10.74%US$150.00US$95.00US$153.1524
Jul ’24US$94.30
US$124.16
+31.66%
10.85%US$150.00US$91.00US$140.1126
Jun ’24US$91.19
US$124.85
+36.91%
11.33%US$150.00US$91.00US$135.4126
May ’24US$104.02
US$126.53
+21.64%
11.07%US$150.00US$91.00US$143.0325
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 25 Analysts
US$159.40
Fair Value
22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/20 04:21
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/20 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Martha FreitagArgus Research Company
Brian SkorneyBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research