Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$8.00 Price Target

Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. The numbers were weak, with revenues of US$7.7m coming in 16% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.68 per share, 3.0% larger than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Marinus Pharmaceuticals

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Marinus Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$39.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 39% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 25% to US$1.98. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$41.1m and losses of US$2.23 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a cut to losses per share in particular.

The analysts have cut their price target 8.9% to US$8.00per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marinus Pharmaceuticals at US$13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Marinus Pharmaceuticals'historical trends, as the 55% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 57% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.4% per year. So although Marinus Pharmaceuticals is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Marinus Pharmaceuticals' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marinus Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Marinus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 6 warning signs for Marinus Pharmaceuticals you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.