Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. The numbers were weak, with revenues of US$8.1m coming in 15% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.63 per share, 6.1% larger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Marinus Pharmaceuticals

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Marinus Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$36.6m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 29% to US$1.92. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$39.4m and losses of US$1.98 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

The consensus price target fell 20% to US$7.00, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Marinus Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Marinus Pharmaceuticals'historical trends, as the 46% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 52% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that Marinus Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Marinus Pharmaceuticals' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Marinus Pharmaceuticals' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Marinus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Marinus Pharmaceuticals (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.