Earnings Update: Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.3% to US$46.47 in the past week. Statutory losses were a bit smaller than expected, at just US$0.82 per share, even though revenues of US$3.7m missed analyst expectations by a shocking 64%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kymera Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 18 analysts covering Kymera Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$65.6m in 2025. This implies a concerning 25% reduction in Kymera Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 27% to US$3.30 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$67.4m and losses of US$3.53 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

There was no major change to the US$57.56average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Kymera Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$38.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kymera Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 27% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 21% per year. It's pretty clear that Kymera Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Kymera Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Kymera Therapeutics is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.