Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
So, the natural question for Kintara Therapeutics (NASDAQ:KTRA) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.
When Might Kintara Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at December 2021, Kintara Therapeutics had cash of US$14m and no debt. In the last year, its cash burn was US$20m. So it had a cash runway of approximately 9 months from December 2021. To be frank, this kind of short runway puts us on edge, as it indicates the company must reduce its cash burn significantly, or else raise cash imminently. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
How Is Kintara Therapeutics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Kintara Therapeutics didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by 45%, which suggests that management are increasing investment in future growth, but not too quickly. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but investors should be mindful of the fact that will shorten the cash runway. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.
Can Kintara Therapeutics Raise More Cash Easily?
Given its cash burn trajectory, Kintara Therapeutics shareholders should already be thinking about how easy it might be for it to raise further cash in the future. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
Kintara Therapeutics' cash burn of US$20m is about 89% of its US$22m market capitalisation. That suggests the company may have some funding difficulties, and we'd be very wary of the stock.
How Risky Is Kintara Therapeutics' Cash Burn Situation?
As you can probably tell by now, we're rather concerned about Kintara Therapeutics' cash burn. In particular, we think its cash burn relative to its market cap suggests it isn't in a good position to keep funding growth. And although we accept its increasing cash burn wasn't as worrying as its cash burn relative to its market cap, it was still a real negative; as indeed were all the factors we considered in this article. After considering the data discussed in this article, we don't have a lot of confidence that its cash burn rate is prudent, as it seems like it might need more cash soon. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 6 warning signs for Kintara Therapeutics (of which 2 are concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.