Karuna Therapeutics Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Karuna Therapeutics is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 60.1% and 52.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 60.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -28.9% in 3 years.

Key information

60.1%

Earnings growth rate

60.1%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth	27.6%
Revenue growth rate	52.1%
Future return on equity	-28.9%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	16 Mar 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGM:KRTX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	690	38	306	344	11
12/31/2025	257	-331	-155	-233	15
12/31/2024	61	-445	-426	-441	16
12/31/2023	1	-434	-389	-386	N/A
9/30/2023	6	-396	-356	-354	N/A
6/30/2023	6	-354	-305	-303	N/A
3/31/2023	11	-316	-280	-279	N/A
12/31/2022	11	-276	-229	-228	N/A
9/30/2022	42	-228	-158	-156	N/A
6/30/2022	42	-202	-143	-140	N/A
3/31/2022	37	-172	-133	-130	N/A
12/31/2021	37	-144	-104	-101	N/A
9/30/2021	N/A	-140	-119	-117	N/A
6/30/2021	N/A	-108	-97	-96	N/A
3/31/2021	N/A	-90	-83	-83	N/A
12/31/2020	N/A	-69	-70	-70	N/A
9/30/2020	N/A	-52	-54	-54	N/A
6/30/2020	N/A	-43	-40	-39	N/A
3/31/2020	N/A	-41	-33	-33	N/A
12/31/2019	N/A	-44	-31	-31	N/A
9/30/2019	N/A	-45	-31	-31	N/A
6/30/2019	N/A	-42	-25	-25	N/A
3/31/2019	N/A	-27	-21	-21	N/A
12/31/2018	N/A	-18	-16	-15	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KRTX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.3%).

Earnings vs Market: KRTX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: KRTX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KRTX's revenue (52.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KRTX's revenue (52.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KRTX is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/03/18 01:44
End of Day Share Price	2024/03/15 00:00
Earnings	2023/12/31
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Caroline Palomeque	Berenberg
Esther Lannie Hong	Berenberg
Jason Matthew Gerberry	BofA Global Research

Karuna Therapeutics Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11%, EPS downgraded

Price target increased by 7.2% to US$327

Forecast to breakeven in 2026

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 23%

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 22%

Price target increased by 9.9% to US$291

Recent updates

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Files Form 15

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc.(NasdaqGM:KRTX) dropped from NASDAQ Composite Index

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) completed the acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:KRTX) from Capital International Investors, FMR LLC, The Vanguard Group, Inc., T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NasdaqGS:TROW) and others.

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11%, EPS downgraded

Board Member exercised options to buy US$9.9m worth of stock.

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Karuna Therapeutics: Getting Sold Short

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Price target increased by 7.2% to US$327

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Resignation of Steve Paul as Chief Scientific Officer and President of Research and Development

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Forecast to breakeven in 2026

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 23%

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 22%

Price target increased by 9.9% to US$291

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:KRTX) for $12.6 billion.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:KRTX) for $12.5 billion.

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces The Lancet Publication of Data from Phase 3 EMERGENT-2 Trial Evaluating KarXT in Schizophrenia

New minor risk - Profitability

Karuna Therapeutics Announces U.S. Food and Drug Administration Accepts New Drug Application for Karxt for the Treatment of Schizophrenia

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Positive Results from Phase 1b Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Trial of KarXT in Schizophrenia

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 55%

New minor risk - Profitability

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$3.16 loss per share (vs US$2.38 loss in 3Q 2022)

Karuna Therapeutics to Present Data from the EMERGENT Program Evaluating KarXT in Schizophrenia at the 2023 Neuroscience Education Institute Congress

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 02, 2023

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Submits New Drug Application to U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Karxt for the Treatment of Schizophrenia

Director exercised options and sold US$2.5m worth of stock

New minor risk - Profitability

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Chief Financial Officer Changes

Director exercised options and sold US$2.6m worth of stock

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 03, 2023

Director notifies of intention to sell stock

CFO & Secretary notifies of intention to sell stock

Karuna Therapeutics to Present Data from the EMERGENT Program Evaluating KarXT in Schizophrenia at the American Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology Annual Meeting

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 20%

Co-Founder & COO notifies of intention to sell stock

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$838k worth of stock

Independent Director exercised options and sold US$96k worth of stock

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$920k worth of stock

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 85%

CFO & Secretary notifies of intention to sell stock

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Karuna Therapeutics Appoints William P. Kane as Chief Commercial Officer

Independent Director exercised options and sold US$113k worth of stock

CFO & Secretary exercised options to buy US$2.3m worth of stock.

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$965k worth of stock

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Executive Changes, Effective January 3, 2023

Co-Founder & COO exercised options and sold US$168k worth of stock

Chief Medical Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 25%

Co-Founder & COO exercised options and sold US$444k worth of stock

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$992k worth of stock

CFO & Secretary notifies of intention to sell stock

CFO & Secretary recently sold US$3.4m worth of stock

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$1.2m worth of stock

Karuna Therapeutics: This Ship Has Sailed

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target increased to US$236

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Positive Results from Phase 3 EMERGENT-2 Trial of KarXT in Schizophrenia

Karuna Therapeutics GAAP EPS of -$2.17 misses by $0.10, revenue of $5.28M

High number of new directors

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$1.9m worth of stock

Karuna Therapeutics: Front-Running KarXT Phase 3

Chief Medical Officer exercised options and sold US$509k worth of stock

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock