Karuna Therapeutics, Inc.

NasdaqGM:KRTX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.6b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Karuna Therapeutics Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Karuna Therapeutics is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 60.1% and 52.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 60.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -28.9% in 3 years.

Key information

60.1%

Earnings growth rate

60.08%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth25.2%
Revenue growth rate52.1%
Future return on equity-28.93%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated16 Mar 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 18

Karuna Therapeutics: Getting Sold Short

Summary Karuna Therapeutics is developing a novel product, KarXT, to treat psychoses related to Alzheimer's and schizophrenia. The product targets muscarinic receptors in an agonist/antagonist combination. Some shareholders are suing to prevent the acquisition of Karuna by Bristol-Myers Squibb. Also, the vote is outstanding. The 10% or so deal spread seems small. While the chance that the deal falls through would be bad for the short-term performance of Karuna, it may be a buying moment considering the imminent release and size of markets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 09

Karuna Therapeutics: This Ship Has Sailed

Summary Karuna produced excellent data from its phase 3 trial. They have a boatload of cash. Speaking of boats, however, this ship has already sailed. Since my last coverage of Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (KRTX) just over a year back, the stock has nearly tripled after posting strong results from its schizophrenia trial, meeting the primary endpoint of that trial. That was a month back, and even though the company took the opportunity to carry out a massive $600mn secondary, the dilution hasn’t put a dent in public enthusiasm. The stock is still going strong, although it is back down a few notches. From my previous coverage of the company, they were running a 246-patient phase 3 trial called EMERGENT-2, and 3 more phase 3 trials in the EMERGENT series, in their lead candidate KarXT in acutely psychotic patients with a DSM-5 diagnosis of schizophrenia. KarXT is a differentiated antipsychotic molecule that combines muscarinic-agonist xanomeline and muscarinic-antagonist trospium chloride together. While xanomeline works in the CNS, trospium helps avoid undesirable, cholinergic side effects that arise due to the stimulation of muscarinic receptors in peripheral tissues. The FDA has guided that “data from EMERGENT-1 [a phase 2 study], one successful Phase 3 efficacy and safety trial, and additional safety data to meet regulatory requirements would be acceptable to support NDA filing in schizophrenia.” The first two phase 3 studies were supposed to have toplined in early 2022. In August, the company announced positive data from the EMERGENT-2 trial. This was a double blind, placebo controlled trial done entirely in the United States. It enrolled 252 adult patients with a confirmed diagnosis of schizophrenia who were experiencing symptoms of psychosis. The primary endpoint was change from baseline in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale ((PANSS)) total score, a scale for measuring schizophrenia symptom severity, of KarXT compared to placebo at Week 5. The trial resoundingly met its primary endpoint, with KarXT demonstrating a statistically significant 9.6-point reduction in PANSS Total Score compared to placebo at Week 5 (p<0.0001). The trial also met key secondary endpoints. Data include: 2.9-point reduction in the PANSS positive subscale with KarXT compared to placebo (-6.8 KarXT vs. -3.9 placebo, p<0.0001). 1.8-point reduction in the PANSS negative subscale with KarXT compared to placebo (-3.4 KarXT vs. -1.6 placebo, p=0.0055). 2.2-point reduction in the PANSS negative Marder factor subscale with KarXT compared to placebo (-4.2 KarXT vs. -2.0 placebo, p=0.0022). The PANSS scores are used to measure positive symptoms (e.g., hallucinations or delusions) and negative symptoms (e.g., difficulty enjoying life or withdrawal from others) of schizophrenia. Benefit in the negative symptoms has historically been difficult to achieve. The trial’s Cohen’s d effect size of 0.61 compares well “to that of widely used and multibillion-dollar blockbusters Risperdal and Zyprexa (about a 0.5 effect size),” according to William Blair analysts. The drug was generally well-tolerated with little differentiation from placebo. There was transient increase in heart rate, which subsided as the trial ended. Importantly, KarXT was not associated with known side effects of current treatments. As FierceBiotech noted: The clinical trial studied KarXT, a xanomeline formulation designed to address the problems that led Lilly to give up on the molecule despite generating evidence of efficacy. Lilly found the M1 agonist improved cognition in Alzheimer’s disease patients in the 1990s, only for tolerability to stop the program. Karuna sought to address the tolerability problems by giving xanomeline with a peripherally restricted molecule that blocks receptors at the root of the issues without crossing the blood-brain barrier to limit efficacy.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 08

Karuna Therapeutics GAAP EPS of -$2.17 misses by $0.10, revenue of $5.28M

Karuna Therapeutics press release (NASDAQ:KRTX): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$2.17 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $5.28M. The Company ended the quarter with $407.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investment securities compared to $494.0 million as of December 31, 2021. The Company expects that current cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investment securities as of June 30, 2022 will enable the Company to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements for at least 12 months following the potential NDA submission of KarXT for the treatment of psychosis in adults with schizophrenia. Shares +8.29% PM.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 26

Karuna Therapeutics: Front-Running KarXT Phase 3

Treatments for schizophrenia – a truly complex disease--are plagued with a high late-stage trial failure rate. Phase 3 KarXT results will be released this quarter. It will be a binary event. Despite cash balance issues and new clinical stage competitors, market  indicators suggest that investors are re-engaged.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGM:KRTX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20266903830634411
12/31/2025257-331-155-23315
12/31/202461-445-426-44116
12/31/20231-434-389-386N/A
9/30/20236-396-356-354N/A
6/30/20236-354-305-303N/A
3/31/202311-316-280-279N/A
12/31/202211-276-229-228N/A
9/30/202242-228-158-156N/A
6/30/202242-202-143-140N/A
3/31/202237-172-133-130N/A
12/31/202137-144-104-101N/A
9/30/2021N/A-140-119-117N/A
6/30/2021N/A-108-97-96N/A
3/31/2021N/A-90-83-83N/A
12/31/2020N/A-69-70-70N/A
9/30/2020N/A-52-54-54N/A
6/30/2020N/A-43-40-39N/A
3/31/2020N/A-41-33-33N/A
12/31/2019N/A-44-31-31N/A
9/30/2019N/A-45-31-31N/A
6/30/2019N/A-42-25-25N/A
3/31/2019N/A-27-21-21N/A
12/31/2018N/A-18-16-15N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KRTX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.3%).

Earnings vs Market: KRTX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: KRTX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KRTX's revenue (52.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KRTX's revenue (52.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KRTX is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/03/18 01:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/03/15 00:00
Earnings2023/12/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Caroline PalomequeBerenberg
Esther Lannie HongBerenberg
Jason Matthew GerberryBofA Global Research