Karuna Therapeutics, Inc.

NasdaqGM:KRTX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.6b

Karuna Therapeutics Valuation

Is KRTX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KRTX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KRTX ($329.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1498.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KRTX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KRTX?

Key metric: As KRTX barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for KRTX. This is calculated by dividing KRTX's market cap by their current book value.
What is KRTX's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio10x
BookUS$1.25b
Market CapUS$12.58b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does KRTX's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for KRTX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9x
INCY Incyte
4.2x46.9%US$13.5b
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical
2.3x27.9%US$12.7b
PCVX Vaxcyte
3.1x-4.5%US$10.7b
INSM Insmed
26.1x54.4%US$12.6b
KRTX Karuna Therapeutics
10x60.1%US$12.6b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: KRTX is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does KRTX's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

68 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GRAL GRAIL
0.2x35.7%US$632.03m
AMRN Amarin
0.4x-7.9%US$187.86m
LYEL Lyell Immunopharma
0.3x-14.9%US$171.13m
NKTX Nkarta
0.4x-11.5%US$165.84m
KRTX 10.0xIndustry Avg. 1.7xNo. of Companies83PB01.63.24.86.48+
68 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: KRTX is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (10x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (2.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KRTX's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KRTX PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio10x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate KRTX's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KRTX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Dec ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Nov ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Oct ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Sep ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Aug ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Jul ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Jun ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
May ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Apr ’25n/a
US$326.92
0%
3.3%US$330.00US$290.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$316.24
US$327.14
+3.4%
3.1%US$330.00US$290.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$313.50
US$327.33
+4.4%
3.0%US$330.00US$290.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$316.51
US$312.80
-1.2%
12.3%US$330.00US$197.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$196.53
US$265.26
+35.0%
13.4%US$320.00US$197.00n/a19
Nov ’24US$173.18
US$268.26
+54.9%
13.9%US$332.00US$197.00n/a19
Oct ’24US$169.09
US$271.11
+60.3%
13.3%US$332.00US$197.00n/a18
Sep ’24US$188.70
US$273.61
+45.0%
13.4%US$332.00US$197.00n/a18
Aug ’24US$197.13
US$278.18
+41.1%
12.6%US$334.00US$193.00n/a17
Jul ’24US$216.85
US$277.24
+27.8%
12.7%US$334.00US$193.00n/a17
Jun ’24US$229.26
US$273.30
+19.2%
12.4%US$334.00US$193.00n/a20
May ’24US$205.11
US$276.10
+34.6%
12.6%US$341.00US$193.00n/a20
Apr ’24US$181.64
US$276.67
+52.3%
12.3%US$341.00US$193.00n/a21
Mar ’24US$197.15
US$282.35
+43.2%
10.7%US$341.00US$206.00US$316.2420
Feb ’24US$194.28
US$286.15
+47.3%
9.4%US$330.00US$209.00US$313.5020
Jan ’24US$196.50
US$290.39
+47.8%
7.2%US$330.00US$260.00US$316.5118
Dec ’23US$229.98
US$290.72
+26.4%
7.1%US$330.00US$260.00US$196.5318

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/03/18 18:13
End of Day Share Price 2024/03/15 00:00
Earnings2023/12/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Caroline PalomequeBerenberg
Esther Lannie HongBerenberg
Jason Matthew GerberryBofA Global Research