Analysts Are Updating Their Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (NASDAQ:KNSA) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (NASDAQ:KNSA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals beat revenue forecasts by a solid 15%, hitting US$32m. Statutory losses also increased, with a per-share loss of US$0.36, slightly larger than what the analysts wereexpecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' five analysts is for revenues of US$133.4m in 2022, which would reflect a substantial 89% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 21% to US$1.53. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$127.2m and losses of US$1.73 per share in 2022. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a cut to loss per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$23.00, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 133% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 150% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So although Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.