Results: Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders of Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to US$34.09 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were US$185m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.78, an impressive 28% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Harmony Biosciences Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of US$840.7m in 2025. This reflects a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 26% to US$3.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$841.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.13 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$51.11, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Harmony Biosciences Holdings analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 35% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Harmony Biosciences Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Harmony Biosciences Holdings' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$51.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Harmony Biosciences Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.