Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.5% to US$31.69. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$155m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Harmony Biosciences Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.67 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Harmony Biosciences Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of US$712.0m in 2024. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.44, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$710.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.95 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$42.25, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Harmony Biosciences Holdings at US$56.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 34% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Harmony Biosciences Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Harmony Biosciences Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Harmony Biosciences Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.