We Think GeoVax Labs (NASDAQ:GOVX) Needs To Drive Business Growth Carefully

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether GeoVax Labs (NASDAQ:GOVX) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

See our latest analysis for GeoVax Labs

How Long Is GeoVax Labs' Cash Runway?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. When GeoVax Labs last reported its balance sheet in June 2022, it had zero debt and cash worth US$31m. In the last year, its cash burn was US$17m. Therefore, from June 2022 it had roughly 22 months of cash runway. While that cash runway isn't too concerning, sensible holders would be peering into the distance, and considering what happens if the company runs out of cash. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

How Is GeoVax Labs' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

In our view, GeoVax Labs doesn't yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just US$277k in the last twelve months. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis we'll focus on how the cash burn is tracking. Its cash burn positively exploded in the last year, up 240%. With that kind of spending growth its cash runway will shorten quickly, as it simultaneously uses its cash while increasing the burn rate. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Easily Can GeoVax Labs Raise Cash?

While GeoVax Labs does have a solid cash runway, its cash burn trajectory may have some shareholders thinking ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

GeoVax Labs has a market capitalisation of US$26m and burnt through US$17m last year, which is 63% of the company's market value. That's very high expenditure relative to the company's size, suggesting it is an extremely high risk stock.

How Risky Is GeoVax Labs' Cash Burn Situation?

On this analysis of GeoVax Labs' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. Looking at the factors mentioned in this short report, we do think that its cash burn is a bit risky, and it does make us slightly nervous about the stock. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 5 warning signs for GeoVax Labs (3 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.