What Gilead Sciences (GILD)'s First Lenacapavir Shipments in Africa Mean For Shareholders

• Gilead Sciences recently delivered its first shipments of the injectable HIV prevention drug lenacapavir to Eswatini and Zambia, advancing efforts to expand access across sub-Saharan Africa.
• This milestone not only accelerates the availability of long-acting HIV prevention in countries with the highest disease burden but also highlights Gilead's approach of collaborating with governments and generic manufacturers to ensure sustainable and affordable supply.
• We'll examine how Gilead's move to supply lenacapavir for PrEP in Africa could reshape its investment case and long-term growth profile.

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Gilead Sciences Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Gilead Sciences, I believe you need confidence in the company’s ability to extend its leadership in global HIV prevention and treatment, while steadily diversifying its pipeline in oncology and liver diseases. The recent lenacapavir shipments to Africa mark important progress in market expansion, but do not change the most important near-term catalyst, which is the successful commercial rollout and regulatory approvals for lenacapavir and new oncology treatments. The largest risk I see remains Gilead’s heavy reliance on HIV earnings and the threat of new policy-driven pricing pressure, which this news does not materially alter.

Among recent announcements, I find the new collaboration with the Global Fund, to offer lenacapavir at no profit for up to two million people across high-burden countries, to be especially relevant. This underscores Gilead’s approach to accelerate access but also elevates the importance of execution risk in international markets, particularly in regulatory, reimbursement, and uptake for new launches such as lenacapavir.

By contrast, you should be aware that increased competition and rapid changes in HIV treatment technology remain looming risks for Gilead’s future growth and profitability, especially as...

Read the full narrative on Gilead Sciences (it's free!)

Gilead Sciences' narrative projects $32.3 billion revenue and $10.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.8% yearly revenue growth and a $3.7 billion increase in earnings from current earnings of $6.3 billion.

Uncover how Gilead Sciences' forecasts yield a $130.83 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While most analysts saw moderate growth for Gilead, with the most optimistic expecting US$33.9 billion in annual revenue and US$10.8 billion earnings by 2028, some believe Gilead’s innovation in launches like lenacapavir could drive even stronger market expansion and faster long-term earnings gains. These more optimistic forecasts show opinions can be very different, and it’s well worth considering how this new announcement might shift those views.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Gilead Sciences - why the stock might be worth 25% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Gilead Sciences Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Gilead Sciences research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Gilead Sciences research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Gilead Sciences' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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