Exelixis (EXEL) Valuation in Focus After Pivotal Phase 3 Oncology Results

Exelixis (EXEL) just released fresh data from two late-stage clinical trials, capturing the spotlight among oncology investors. The company detailed positive results from its STELLAR-303 trial for metastatic colorectal cancer, as well as a new CABOMETYX subgroup analysis.

See our latest analysis for Exelixis.

After these latest results, Exelixis has grabbed investor attention, and it’s easy to see why, with the share price up 14% year-to-date and a stellar 39% total return over the past year. That brisk long-term momentum, including a 133% total shareholder return over three years, shows that confidence in its R&D pipeline and regulatory milestones continues to build, even as the stock has seen some volatility in recent months.

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But with shares now trading just 13% below their average analyst price target, and recent gains already accounting for clinical wins and regulatory milestones, investors have to ask if Exelixis is still undervalued or if future growth is fully priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.1% Undervalued

Exelixis last closed at $38.72 while the most-followed narrative suggests a fair value of $44.06, implying a solid gap driven by bold future growth estimates and product expansion. The numbers tell a story of high expectations and justification for a premium over today’s price.

The recent introduction and rapid uptake of CABOMETYX in neuroendocrine tumors, combined with its continued strength and market leadership in renal cell carcinoma, signals an expanding patient base in tumor types with high unmet need. This is poised to drive strong, durable revenue growth as aging populations and rising cancer incidence increase long-term demand for oncology therapeutics.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what assumptions deliver this valuation? The future price tag relies on aggressive forecasts for revenue growth, profit margins, and reduced share count. But what’s the secret ingredient hiding in analysts’ profit estimates? Dive in and discover the specific financial leap this narrative is banking on.

Result: Fair Value of $44.06 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant risks remain, including Exelixis’s heavy reliance on Cabometyx and the upcoming 2031 patent expiry. This development could reshape future growth trajectories.

Find out about the key risks to this Exelixis narrative.

Build Your Own Exelixis Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or question the assumptions behind these forecasts, you can easily customize your own view in just minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Exelixis.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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