Will Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ:COGT) Spend Its Cash Wisely?

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ:COGT) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

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How Long Is Cogent Biosciences' Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In December 2024, Cogent Biosciences had US$287m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was US$208m. That means it had a cash runway of around 17 months as of December 2024. While that cash runway isn't too concerning, sensible holders would be peering into the distance, and considering what happens if the company runs out of cash. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

See our latest analysis for Cogent Biosciences

How Is Cogent Biosciences' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Cogent Biosciences isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. With the cash burn rate up 33% in the last year, it seems that the company is ratcheting up investment in the business over time. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but investors should be mindful of the fact that will shorten the cash runway. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company .

How Easily Can Cogent Biosciences Raise Cash?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Cogent Biosciences shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Since it has a market capitalisation of US$640m, Cogent Biosciences' US$208m in cash burn equates to about 33% of its market value. That's not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year's growth at the current share price, you'd likely witness fairly costly dilution.

So, Should We Worry About Cogent Biosciences' Cash Burn?

Even though its cash burn relative to its market cap makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought Cogent Biosciences' cash runway was relatively promising. Summing up, we think the Cogent Biosciences' cash burn is a risk, based on the factors we mentioned in this article. On another note, Cogent Biosciences has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.