The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.
After the downgrade, the nine analysts covering Bicycle Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$12m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$2.95 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$24m and US$2.61 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Bicycle Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2021 being well below the historical 30% growth over the last year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bicycle Therapeutics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on Bicycle Therapeutics, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.
So things certainly aren't looking great, and you should also know that we've spotted some potential warning signs with Bicycle Therapeutics, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 2 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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