US$8.00 - That's What Analysts Think Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) Is Worth After These Results

Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 5.5% better than analyst forecasts at US$23m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.04 per share, were 5.5% smaller than the analyst expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analyst is expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aytu BioPharma

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from solitary analyst covering Aytu BioPharma is for revenues of US$83.5m in 2024. This implies a chunky 15% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$2.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$85.5m and losses of US$2.17 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Aytu BioPharma after the new consensus numbers; while the analyst trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.

The analyst lifted their price target 60% to US$8.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 28% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 42% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aytu BioPharma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aytu BioPharma. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Aytu BioPharma is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.