Aytu BioPharma, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and earnings both coming in very strong. Revenues were 10% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$14m, while the company also delivered a surprise statutory profit, against analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Aytu BioPharma's three analysts is for revenues of US$55.3m in 2026, which would reflect an uneasy 13% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 13% from last year to US$1.14. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$55.2m and losses of US$0.85 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Aytu BioPharma even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a very substantial increase in per-share losses.

View our latest analysis for Aytu BioPharma

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 5.2% to US$9.17, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Aytu BioPharma analyst has a price target of US$12.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aytu BioPharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 17% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aytu BioPharma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Aytu BioPharma. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aytu BioPharma's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aytu BioPharma analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Aytu BioPharma (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.