How Investors May Respond To Ascendis Pharma (ASND) Long-Term Data on TransCon PTH Safety and Efficacy

• Earlier this month, Ascendis Pharma shared new long-term data from its Phase 3 PaTHway Trial showing that TransCon PTH provided sustained benefits in adults with hypoparathyroidism for up to 156 weeks.
• The findings, presented at ENDO 2025, highlighted both durable biochemical and kidney improvements as well as ongoing quality-of-life gains, with a strong safety profile and no new safety concerns.
• We'll consider how confirmation of long-term safety and efficacy for TransCon PTH could influence Ascendis Pharma's future growth narrative.

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Ascendis Pharma Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder of Ascendis Pharma, you need to believe in its ability to execute on breakthrough therapies like TransCon PTH and then translate clinical advances into commercial success. The latest long-term clinical data confirms durability and safety for TransCon PTH, offering further validation, but the biggest short-term catalyst remains the commercial uptake of YORVIPATH, while the most immediate risk is potential delays or hurdles in launching new products. At this time, this data supports the company's growth narrative but does not materially change near-term risk or reward.

The recent FDA acceptance of the NDA for TransCon CNP, with a PDUFA date set for November 30, 2025, is the most relevant announcement in the context of this clinical update. Both announcements collectively reinforce investor focus on upcoming product launches and regulatory milestones as ongoing catalysts for the stock.

However, investors should pay close attention to whether the planned commercial expansion meets expectations, because...

Read the full narrative on Ascendis Pharma (it's free!)

Ascendis Pharma's narrative projects €1.9 billion revenue and €696.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 73.5% yearly revenue growth and a €1.04 billion increase in earnings from the current level of €-341.7 million.

Uncover how Ascendis Pharma's forecasts yield a $233.55 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community fall between €233,548 and €899,436 per share, highlighting a broad range of expectations. While product launches remain a key opportunity, delays or regulatory setbacks could impact revenue and sentiment, showing why many opinions exist on future performance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ascendis Pharma - why the stock might be worth just $233.55!

Build Your Own Ascendis Pharma Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ascendis Pharma research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ascendis Pharma research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ascendis Pharma's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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